Santana

Santana

Here is the deal - The Twins WANT Hughes. The Twins have no leverage here. ZERO. Cashman knows it and so does Theo. Billy Smith is slowly realizing he can not get back a Top Ace pitching prospect for Santana... Lester is not that. Bucholz is, Hughes is... Kennedy is not.

Billy Smith has done a terrible job trying to deal the best pitcher in the game. That's what you get with a rookie GM. My advice tear up the existing contract and sign him to a 6 year 120 million dollar extension. Santana will sign for that to say with the Twins - it is what he wanted. You are guaranteeing him 120 million. It allows the Twins to make a run now and if don't work out in a couple season you could always trade him to the Mets, Yanks, Red Sox then.

On Marquez... Quality, solid prospect... Not ranked in the top 10 is a testament to how deep the Yanks are with young pitchers. Same age as Masterson and put up much, much better numbers than he did. Marquez broke out this season and he 90 FB and a nasty Curve. I see no difference in the terms prospect status.

If I were a Twins fan, which I am not, I would be pissed. Both packages are a joke. The Red Sox package is not a good one. STOP saying it is. Lowrie will not be a SS, his range is suspect and looks more like a 2b. Has power potential though... Masterson - I would ask for Bowden. A sinkerball pitcher at the dome? I guess it won't matter after 2010 with the new ballpark. He needs to perform and put up better numbers at AA. And Crisp? The Sox can't give him away. Come on - a player 2 years away from Free agency - 29 - he can't hit over .260 and his OBP is atrocious. He is 29 and on the decline. Crisp was suppose to take over for Damon - the Red Sox ended up with Endy Chavez. He is not the same player he was two years ago. John Lester... good, young pitcher, has showed tons of heart - the only thing worth a damn in this package, but not good enough for Santana.

Hughes is the stud. Melky a good, young ball player - still very young - 23. eventually a corner OF... brings tons of energy and excitement. Still needs to develop power. And Marquez. Maybe another piece, but who? It needs to be someone like a Jose Mojca or Carlos Urena, Dellin Bettances, or Kevin DeLeon.

The Twins should close their eyes and just sign him and deal with the consequences later. Santana will be very good for a long time. They f=have the dough.


Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes. Now that they realize that the Yankees are not falling for it reality is beginning to set in and we now see that the Yankees offer was better all along. If the Twins actually wanted to do the Red Sox deal all along, why haven't they pulled the trigger? It's because they want a better deal. Clearly Hughes/Melky/Marquez is a better deal for the Twins than the Red Sox offers thus far. As a Yankees fan, I hope the Yanks balk and don't give up Hughes / Melky. I don't see the Red Sox going 6-7 years for Johan anyway, so the Yankees can sit back and take a chance at getting him as a FA after '08 and give up nothing but $.

I wonder if the scale back would be a signal to other teams to get involved? Maybe the Mets? I'm sure the Twins would take a slightly worse package to send him to the NL.

Posted by: CubFan81 | December 26, 2007 at 08:49 AM

CubFan81, while I respect your oppion I dont see any team taking a lesser package(especially for an elite talent)so that player is not in the same league as you. You have to ALWAyS takke the best deal for your team. Nothing less.

Posted by: Kramerica Industries | December 26, 2007 at 08:53 AM

I agree, but I wasn't implying they take back garbage. It just seemed the quantity and quality of the NY/BOS packages far outweighed any other teams capabilities. With the Twins not insisting on so much from the Yankees and the Red Sox not caving on their end, another team may be able to come in with their best offers that just weren't up to snuff earlier.

Posted by: CubFan81 | December 26, 2007 at 08:59 AM

isn't this old news, Tim? I recall reading an article you linked here a couple weeks ago that Twins were willing to take Hughes, Marquez, Melky, and Hilligoss, but Cashman didn't want to do it.

Posted by: zs190 | December 26, 2007 at 09:03 AM

That is a good point, I added that to the post. Not sure what the deal is, really.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | December 26, 2007 at 09:25 AM

Marquez has been ranked in the low teens in terms of organizational prospect rankings.

Posted by: PhilsPhan | December 26, 2007 at 09:52 AM

Bottom line-
Sox end up with Santana. I think the Twins front office can see the better package here...

Posted by: Positive/Negative | December 26, 2007 at 10:14 AM

Murray Chass reports....

Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | December 26, 2007 at 10:30 AM

Yeah. I personally like to get my baseball information from people not born before 1900.

Posted by: JakeOD21 | December 26, 2007 at 10:36 AM

I don't buy it. The Twins would scale back their demands for an NL team before they do so for the Yankees.

Posted by: icedrake523 | December 26, 2007 at 10:47 AM

If anything they're scaling back simply to drive the price back up later. They want the Yankees to either get committed to getting Santana again or they want them to get involved enough to put some pressure on the Sox. The BoSox have just been sitting pretty for the last couple weeks.

Anyways, my prediction is that the Sox get him for the Lester package or MAYBE if the twins are successful in putting enough pressure on the Sox, a fifth player will be added in. The fifth player won't be anything in the farm's top 10 though. He'd probably be some kind of decent A/AA position player.

Just my 2 cents anyways.

Posted by: gfulla | December 26, 2007 at 10:56 AM

As for the comments on Luxury Tax, would the Yankees be on the hook for any amount sent to another team in a trade?

For example if they just wanted to dump a player like Giambi, just to name one, and they sent a ton of cash to a team along with him, does the cash sent count against their salary outlay for Luxury Tax calculations?

Posted by: tmar | December 26, 2007 at 01:02 PM

tmar, I THINK the answer to your question is yes. I'm 95% sure that the Red Sox paid luxury tax on the $3m they sent to Atlanta for Renteria.

Posted by: metafrantic | December 26, 2007 at 01:30 PM

While it is only speculation with all the trade talk going on about Santana, there has been a lot of talk about how he said he would like to play for the Yankees. What if Santana decided to tell the Twins the only deal he is really interested in is with the Yankees? Or maybe he just told them while Boston is a fine team, there is no way he is going to screw up his stats by pitching half his games in Fenway.

Being that Ortiz and Santana are friends, maybe they talked and Santana said that he really didn't want to pitch in Fenway. Johan has a number of friends on the Yankees as well. And those have said how Johan would be a good fit in the Bronx.

If a player is wanting to be traded and they have a NTC, they can dictate where they will go. They also might not like seeing the team they are going to having to give up too much in order to gain his services.

Posted by: Ol' Goat | December 26, 2007 at 01:30 PM

i think the sox/twins are a few days away from agreeing, thats what has pushed this move by the twins. the twins must have picked one of the red sox deals, and they are trying to see if they can squeeze something alittle bit better out of the yanks. since they are the ones backing down on the price now, its shows they really want to move santana, and soon i believe. santana should be moved sometime this weekend, if the twins actually conceded their demands, somebody HAS to be close, why else would they do this?

Posted by: 04Forever | December 26, 2007 at 01:34 PM

talk about a big spit in the face to the yanks organization and what the twins think about ian kennedy's "skills". the twins are willing to take an unranked double a pick over him, ouch.

Posted by: 04Forever | December 26, 2007 at 01:42 PM

@04Forever: They're not taking anything "over" him. They're conceding to a lesser player as the Yankees won't include Kennedy in the current trade framework (hence the title "twins BACK DOWN on Santana demand"). As for the trade getting done this weekend, that would be pretty impressive considering the MLB front offices don't open again until next Tuesday (or maybe later...i know it's after the first at any rate).

I do agree the primary motivation here is putting pressure on the BoSox though. Without any competition the Twins don't have nearly as much leverage. That being said, I'd be surprised if they aren't at least hoping that feigning a concession would completely reignite the Yankees' interest in Santana and consequently the NYY/BOS "bidding war."

@Ol' Goat: Did you read Ortiz's comments? He doesn't think it's going to happen because:

"They don’t want him to go. (Minnesota) already gave Boston too many good things already"

That sounds more like a snide quip at the Twins for letting him go if anything. The Twins are going to trade Santana wherever they get the best offer; who they've lost in the past to other teams won't realistically have any influence on this kind of decision (especially a team like the Twins that is so dedicated to squeezing the most they can out of every penny and/or trade).

If anything, despite what Ortiz states in the article, it serves as a positive for Santana going to Boston. Ortiz and Santana were close enough that after all this time he still carries around pictures of Santana's kids? As for Santana wanting be a Yankee...he's never overtly said that and there hasn't been a SINGLE reliable sportswriter that's made that claim.

Posted by: gfulla | December 26, 2007 at 02:06 PM

Doesn't mean anything like that unless you are a shameless Red Sox fan.

If the Twins are backing down on the Yankees offer it either means that Johan wants nothing to do with Fenway as his home park or the Twins are not happy with the Red Sox offer and are hoping to get them to up it.

Posted by: Ol' Goat | December 26, 2007 at 02:06 PM

Bottom line. Twins are trying to reignite a bidding war and probably found some other prospect they were high on (Hilligross?).

Posted by: finite24 | December 26, 2007 at 02:10 PM

Oh and 04Forever...what standard are you basing Jeff Marquez being "unranked" on? Unranked in the top 10? Baseballprospectus recently had him as one of the top 15 in the Yankees for example (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6957).

Posted by: gfulla | December 26, 2007 at 02:14 PM

gfulla, Johan has friends in a number of clubs. Ortiz saying that can be taken as an out for his club. If Santana doesn't want to play the majority of his games in Fenway do you think Ortiz would say that? Or do you think he would take knowing his friend doesn't want to join him in Boston and spin it to being that the Twins would rather help out the Yankees than help out Boston yet again.

Please. Ortiz isn't going to say anything against his club, but being friends with Santana he might have an idea if Santana wanted to pitch in Fenway or not.

Posted by: Ol' Goat | December 26, 2007 at 02:14 PM

gfulla, your link doesnt lead anywhere...

Posted by: 04Forever | December 26, 2007 at 02:19 PM

Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes. Now that they realize that the Yankees are not falling for it reality is beginning to set in and we now see that the Yankees offer was better all along. If the Twins actually wanted to do the Red Sox deal all along, why haven't they pulled the trigger? It's because they want a better deal. Clearly Hughes/Melky/Marquez is a better deal for the Twins than the Red Sox offers thus far. As a Yankees fan, I hope the Yanks balk and don't give up Hughes / Melky. I don't see the Red Sox going 6-7 years for Johan anyway, so the Yankees can sit back and take a chance at getting him as a FA after '08 and give up nothing but $.

Posted by: NYBmbSquad | December 26, 2007 at 02:24 PM

Here is the deal - The Twins WANT Hughes. The Twins have no leverage here. ZERO. Cashman knows it and so does Theo. Billy Smith is slowly realizing he can not get back a Top Ace pitching prospect for Santana... Lester is not that. Bucholz is, Hughes is... Kennedy is not.

Billy Smith has done a terrible job trying to deal the best pitcher in the game. That's what you get with a rookie GM. My advice tear up the existing contract and sign him to a 6 year 120 million dollar extension. Santana will sign for that to say with the Twins - it is what he wanted. You are guaranteeing him 120 million. It allows the Twins to make a run now and if don't work out in a couple season you could always trade him to the Mets, Yanks, Red Sox then.

On Marquez... Quality, solid prospect... Not ranked in the top 10 is a testament to how deep the Yanks are with young pitchers. Same age as Masterson and put up much, much better numbers than he did. Marquez broke out this season and he 90 FB and a nasty Curve. I see no difference in the terms prospect status.

If I were a Twins fan, which I am not, I would be pissed. Both packages are a joke. The Red Sox package is not a good one. STOP saying it is. Lowrie will not be a SS, his range is suspect and looks more like a 2b. Has power potential though... Masterson - I would ask for Bowden. A sinkerball pitcher at the dome? I guess it won't matter after 2010 with the new ballpark. He needs to perform and put up better numbers at AA. And Crisp? The Sox can't give him away. Come on - a player 2 years away from Free agency - 29 - he can't hit over .260 and his OBP is atrocious. He is 29 and on the decline. Crisp was suppose to take over for Damon - the Red Sox ended up with Endy Chavez. He is not the same player he was two years ago. John Lester... good, young pitcher, has showed tons of heart - the only thing worth a damn in this package, but not good enough for Santana.

Hughes is the stud. Melky a good, young ball player - still very young - 23. eventually a corner OF... brings tons of energy and excitement. Still needs to develop power. And Marquez. Maybe another piece, but who? It needs to be someone like a Jose Mojca or Carlos Urena, Dellin Bettances, or Kevin DeLeon.

The Twins should close their eyes and just sign him and deal with the consequences later. Santana will be very good for a long time. They f=have the dough.

Posted by: s51 | December 26, 2007 at 02:24 PM

"Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes."

"Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes."

"Bottom line-
Sox end up with Santana. I think the Twins front office can see the better package here..."

bottom line, people have been saying bottom line to many times.

Posted by: 04Forever | December 26, 2007 at 02:26 PM

"Doesn't mean anything like that unless you are a shameless Red Sox fan.

If the Twins are backing down on the Yankees offer it either means that Johan wants nothing to do with Fenway as his home park or the Twins are not happy with the Red Sox offer and are hoping to get them to up it."

Did you actually READ what i said or did you just skim it...

'I do agree the primary motivation here is putting pressure on the BoSox though. Without any competition the Twins don't have nearly as much leverage. That being said, I'd be surprised if they aren't at least hoping that feigning a concession would completely reignite the Yankees' interest in Santana and consequently the NYY/BOS "bidding war."'
quote from my post


key points:
-trying to get more out of Red Sox
-trying to get Yanks more interested because they haven't been lately (and the lack of interest is based on MANY reports from yankees insiders and yankees brass)

As for your conjecture about where Santana wants to play, it's just that, conjecture. You don't have any special insight into Santana's mind and you're just throwing out ideas that suit your desires. Even worse you're calling me a "shameless Red Sox fan" because i challenged your lack of evidence. There is a slight chance he may want to ONLY be a Yankee, but there is an equal chance he ONLY wants to play for the Sox. Nothing has been legitimately reported on this topic and the fact that there has been more back and forth between the Sox and Twins than the yanks and twins absolutely suggests no comment of this sort was ever made.

Posted by: gfulla | December 26, 2007 at 02:28 PM

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6957

Try that. The link was trying to include the closing parentheses and the period so all you had to do was take them out.

Posted by: gfulla | December 26, 2007 at 02:31 PM

"Bottom line. Twins are trying to reignite a bidding war and probably found some other prospect they were high on (Hilligross?)."

oppps, i forgot one and added one twice instead, looks like im not helping the situation out much huh :p

Posted by: 04Forever | December 26, 2007 at 02:31 PM

gfulla, i retract 50% of what i said now. he is a good player and would be a good trade canidate, but still, technically wasnt ranked, he simply gets a just missed according to your list

Posted by: 04Forever | December 26, 2007 at 02:33 PM

The Yankkes offer is better for 2 reasons: (1) the Twins will never accept Coco Crisp in a trade (his inclusion in the deal is Boston’s Fail Safe so the trade to the Sox will never happen); and (2) If Hughes is part of a Yankees offer but Clay Buchholz is NOT part of a Red Sox offer, then the Sox offer is a joke (I hope for his continued health but would you tade for a guy (Lester) that has just gotten over cancer therapy?). Believe me the Twins GM is no fool - he knows this and I never for one minute ever expected the Red Sox offer to be accepted by the Twins. The Twins always intended to accept the Yanks proposal but overplayed their hand when they asked for Kennedy, too. Getting Kennedy in addition to Hughes would equate to the Red Sox offering both Lester AND Buchholz. But of course, the Sox never did that because all along they never intended to make this deal for Santana. They were in it only to drive up the price for the Yanks. When Cash$$ and Hank saw what was happening they told the Twins to bugger off. That’s where it stands now. If I’m the Yankees I do not make this deal and I keep the young guys until we see what they can do. Plus, signing Santana would increase the payroll to $225 million. Gulp!! In 2009, if we want to get Sanatana we can sign him as a FA (Giambi, Pavano, and a lot of other salary gets freed up) and give up zilch. Tell me all you geniuses out there, what do you think is the more sound business decision?

I think the way people are comparing the two packages (Hughes vs. Lester, Melky vs. Crisp, etc.) falls apart after the Hughes vs. Lester part. I agree with the consensus around here that Melky gets overrated, but with what potential he has and how little he stands to make, the Yankees are actually giving up someone they can use, and the Twins are getting something they want. Crisp isn’t breaking anyone’s bank, but considering how he has turned out, his contract makes him a wash at best. The Sox would rather not have him, and the Twins certainly aren’t motivated to give up anything for him.

Melky and Crisp are both the CF piece in their respective packages, but the parallel breaks down there. Hughes/Melky are the higher-end part of Yankees package, but Crisp just doesn’t fit that patter the way people are suggesting. I would rather have any prospect in either package (except, presumably, Hit-Streak) than Crisp at his salary.

I don’t know the Sox prospects nearly well enough to have an opinion about which package is stronger, but I do think the way everyone is presenting the comparison is misleading. Crisp should be compared to the humblest Yankee offering because of his salary, not to Melky because of his position and readiness.

Another Idiot Redsox Fan says Redsox Package are way better than Yankees are offering

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/twins-back-down.html#comments


04Forever


"Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes."

"Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes."

"Bottom line-
Sox end up with Santana. I think the Twins front office can see the better package here..."

bottom line, people have been saying bottom line to many times.

Dayn Perry- 10 impact rookies ready to break out

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7596852


Let's talk rookies.

Specifically, let's talk rookies who figure to make an impact in 2008. The names you'll see on this list aren't necessarily the best prospects in baseball (although many are), but rather, they're the ones who best combine ability and opportunity in the upcoming season. In other words, these are the 10 rookies who are going to mean the most to their respective teams in 2008:

1. Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox, 23

Buchholz already has a no-hitter to his credit, so you know he's capable of thriving in the majors. He's also the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. He's got a tremendous four-seam fastball, a plus-plus 12-6 curve, a sinking two-seamer, a solid slider and an above-average changeup. He's got command of all those pitches, and on the mound he's poised and has clean mechanics. Provided Buccholz stays healthy, he's a future ace. The BoSox have plenty of rotation depth right now, but they'll make room for Buchholz. He'll excel right away, and there's likely a Cy Young or two in his future.

2. Joba Chamberlain, SP, Yankees, 22


Chamberlain's already made a splash at the highest level, but his rookie status is still intact. Down the stretch he was a highly valuable reliever for the Yankees, but in 2008 he'll be in the rotation. He boasts a devastating fastball and one of the filthiest sliders you'll ever see. The concerns are his injury history and that, after pitching in relief for so long, he may have lost his feel for his changeup. He'll need to refine that third pitch if he's to thrive as a starter, but he should do that in time. The Yanks need Chamberlain to transition in a hurry, and he's got the stuff and makeup to do just that.

3. Evan Longoria, 3B, Devil Rays, 22

Longoria is one of the best prospects in the game, and he's looking like a future star in Tampa. In 2007, Longoria was named MVP of the Double-A Southern League, and that was just his first full professional season. He's got outstanding bat speed, power to all fields and knowledge of the strike zone. As his success in the high minors proves, Longoria's ready for the next level. Now that B.J. Upton is in center and Akinori Iwamura is at second, Longoria is penciled in as the Rays' starting third baseman. Don't be surprised if AL Rookie of the Year honors follow.

4. Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers, 24

Last season, Dodger third basemen combined to "hit" .254 AVG/.327 OBP/.386 SLG, while the average major-league third baseman put up a batting line of .273 AVG/.342 OBP/.443 SLG. As you can see, L.A. has some ground to make up. Fortunately, LaRoche, as long as he's plugged into the lineup and left alone, should do the job. In five minor-league seasons, LaRoche hit .295 AVG/.376 OBP/.525 SLG, so he's got the track record. In 2008, don't be surprised if he posts an OBP of .350 or better and slugs .450 or better. Needless to say, such numbers would constitute a drastic improvement over what the Dodgers got from the hot corner in 2007.

5. Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs, 30

This year's marquee import fills some definite needs in Chicago. They need better production from right field, and they need a left-handed bat in the lineup. Fukudome helps them out on both counts. He's more of a line-drive hitter than a serious power threat, but he'll rack up the doubles and get on base at a good clip. He's a Gold Glove-caliber defender in right as well, and he can even get by in center in a pinch. Overall, Fukudome should be a productive player for most of his four-year contract.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox, 24

Ellsbury is slated to be the Red Sox's Opening Day center fielder, and he'll be a good one. Ellsbury hits for average, flashes once-in-a-generation speed and picks it in center. If there's a concern, it's that Ellsbury doesn't take many walks and doesn't have much in the way of raw power. His defense and contact skills mean he can get by without the power, but as a leadoff hitter he'll need to do a better job of laying off pitches out of the zone. Still, that's the approach Boston teaches, and it'll sink in over time.

7. Homer Bailey, SP, Reds, 21

Bailey has loads of natural ability, but thus far he's struggled in the majors. He looked much better in September after returning from a groin injury, and the hope is that he'll be able to capitalize on that success in 2008. Bailey's got a fastball for the ages, a tremendous hammer curve, a classic power pitcher's frame, solid change, and a record of success in the minors. On the mound he's sometimes aggressive to a fault, and he needs to rely less on his fastball. Once he learns to mix up his pitches a bit better, he should take off. Bailey will pitch his home games in a brutal environment for hurlers, so grade him on a curve this season. Also, here's hoping that manager Dusty Baker doesn't overwork Bailey while he's still at such a young age.

8. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers, 32

The signing of Kuroda gives the Dodgers the deepest rotation in the National League. Kuroda throws four pitches for strikes, keeps the ball on the ground and has good control. Scouts say he's got a knack for bearing down in the late innings and with runners in scoring position. At age 32, his ceiling is obviously quite limited, but in 2008 Kuroda should be good for 200 innings or so and a sub-4.00 ERA. That's just what the Dodgers need at the back of the rotation.

9. Chase Headley, OF, Padres, 23

Headley doesn't get as much press as some prospects, but he can rake. Last season, the switch-hitter put up huge numbers at pitcher-friendly AA-San Antonio, and that placed him squarely on the Padres' radar. Headley has come up as a third baseman, but Kevin Kouzmanoff is blocking him in San Diego. The Padres will transition Headley to an outfield corner position this spring, and he could be the Padres' starter in left on Opening Day. The Pads badly need more offense from the flank outfield positions, and Headley can certainly help them on that front.

10. Daric Barton, 1B, A's, 22

Barton is an exceptional pure hitter with patience at the plate and a classic left-handed swing. Last season he flashed his potential by hitting .347 AVG/.429 OBP/.639 SLG after a September call-up to Oakland, and he's slated to open the 2008 campaign as the A's starting first baseman. It's not certain how much power he'll show in the majors, but Barton will hit for average and take his walks. He's still very young, so don't be surprised if the power comes eventually.

Dayn Perry.. you are a naive vaticinator.
GoSOX
12/26/2007
11:00 AM (report inappropriate content)

matthew47,

Joba will follow the stankee tradition of choking..as he did in the playoffs( do u remember that BLEEP )...
Clay is far ahead of big fat shitty joba...remember the no-hitter?
tscannon
12/26/2007
8:46 AM (report inappropriate content)

I still remember the last starter we go0t from Detroit..(Smoltz) only if jair could do the same!!
smoltzfan121 This user has a blog
12/26/2007
7:12 AM (report inappropriate content)

what about Jair Jurrjens from the atlanta braves. He was acquired in the trade for edgar renteria to the tigers. Leyland even said he would have been in the starting rotation this year for the tigers so he will certainly be in he braves rotation.
matthew47
12/25/2007
9:34 PM (report inappropriate content)

wow...Dayn, can you be a bigger red sox fan?? you have Clay Buchholz 'excelling right away' AND winning at least one OR two cy young awards? and exactly how long has joba chamberlain been a relief pitcher? about 2-months? Check your love for the red sox at the door, drinking the red sox kool aid oh my god...puhleeze...
sanjaya
12/25/2007
6:53 PM (report inappropriate content)

What about Brian Bannister of the Royals?
AChacko689
12/25/2007
10:11 AM (report inappropriate content)

dayn perry, come on man. u need to get ur facts straight. the best pitching prospect is the LA Dodgers Clayton Kershaw. I keep defending u every time someone says ur an idiot, but ur making it harder for me each time. u completely left him off ur list. is the dodgers rotation so good that kershaw will never make his debut in 2008? cmon perry. update ur rankings.
dsawyer77
12/25/2007
4:28 AM (report inappropriate content)

QB Atleast the Sox were smart enough to get rid of and have nothing to do with Pavano.On Manny you dislike him because he is a yankee killer
finman
12/24/2007
7:38 PM (report inappropriate content)

Moondawg...typical Giants fan..... Penny, Lowe , Billingsly and Kuroda + any of the other guys as a 5th... no one better all the way through 5.... All Giants fans will argue until the end than give the Dodgers credit... Maybe Frisco will be back in a few years... until then... stop the idiot speak....
moondawg78
12/24/2007
8:57 AM (report inappropriate content)

Fiddy, why bother discussing sports if you can't do so rationally? I'm a die-hard Giants fan but I can admit that they are 1, maybe 2 years away from competing unless the young arms breakout ahead of schedule.

Meanwhile, homer morons such as yourself rant until you're blue in the face about how great your own team is no matter the evidence staring you straight in the face.

Bums best rotation in the NL?!? Are you joking? Haren and Webb could be followed in Arizona's rotatoin by Jose Conseco and Mark Grace and they'd STILL have the best rotation in the NL. Even the Padres have a better rotation than the Bums. Schmidt will be lucky to be a shell of his former self by August. Kuroda wasn't even the best pitcher in Japan and we've already seen the best (Dice-K) get smoked for a plus 4.00 ERA and lose 12 games for the Boston f-ing Red Sox. Lowe is OK and Billingsley might pan out.

And by what measure on what world did Penny challenge Penny? He had 3 fewer wins, .5 higher ERA, 15 less IP (and Peavy never pitched into the 8th), 30 more hits, and 100 LESS Ks.

Being blind to your own team's fault doesn't make you a better or more loyal fan. It just makes you an idiot.
tipakul_SEC_fann This user has a blog
12/24/2007
8:55 AM (report inappropriate content)

da onlee ones dat will get bedder is the ones dat plaied in da sec. if dey didnt dey wont never be good
Sublime61892
12/24/2007
7:45 AM (report inappropriate content)

if i were you dayn i would go home and cry cause MoBStaR owned you.....he should be writing articles on here
QBkillaAnt
12/24/2007
7:27 AM (report inappropriate content)

Hey Asoxfan do you think before you open your fat face. You most not cause if you did you'd know that to be considered a rookie pitcher you can not pitch more then 50 innings of major league ball in a season. So BLEEP you'll notice superstar of the future Phil Hughes pitched 73 innings last year!!! Wow that means you can't call him a rookie anymore!!!! Which means he can't be on this list!!! Oh and 2 things for you 2 swallow. 1) guess who else was a HUGE red sox fan.........Carl "i'm a BLEEP " Pavano!! 2) Manny being Manny was born in Manhattan and raised a yankee fan!!!
pilo
12/24/2007
7:10 AM (report inappropriate content)

Go Yankees! Beat Boston!
youareclueless
12/24/2007
6:35 AM (report inappropriate content)

Why are all red sox fans morons? Seriously...Who cares if Hughes was a red BLEEP fan. T Sturtze is a redsux fan too. I wonder if red sox fans feel that much better about themselves that they have fans that pitch for another team because we all know that never happens *eyeroll*. you're so corny asuxfan....your boy buchholz is a spoiled little brat who steals, that's ok right? Red sox fans have no moral values at all
asoxfan
12/24/2007
4:38 AM (report inappropriate content)

The reason that Hughes is not on the list is because while he is a great pitcher and top prospect he has shown his inability to stay healthy. With the way the Yanks use pitchers it will continue. Joba has amazing stuff and can't wait to see him starting. Elsbury is amazing with the bat. I saw a stat that after about 20 games in the majors he had only swung and missed on 15-20 pitches. Not saying they all went for basehits, but putting the bat on the ball is what it is all about. I would rather him hit for average and be on first with someone in the box. He disrupts a pitchers comcentration because of his unreal speed and the good jump he gets off first. I see him stealing 40+ next year as a lead off man. Should be fun watching all of the rookies play next year.

Oh and Yankee fans how does it feel to have one of your top prospects being a HUGE Red Sox fan?
aotiobaby
12/24/2007
4:29 AM (report inappropriate content)

Dayn, How can you put Kuroda ahead of James Loney or Matt Kemp? I don't agree with some of the demeaner your readers are using but dang man, you blew this one. I agree, try research next time.
MoBStaR
12/24/2007
1:47 AM (report inappropriate content)

Dayn-
do you watch baseball at all? i mean, can you honestly say that you know what your talking about when it comes to "impact rookies". i couldnt help but LAUGH when i read names like LaRoche, Fukudome, Kuroda, and Bailey.
"Last season, Dodger third basemen combined to "hit" .254 AVG/.327 OBP/.386 SLG" - yea way to go buddy your just averaging nomar's .285 ba with over 450 AB and LaRoches .220 ba with 100 AB... oh and by the way, you can have phenominal numbers in the minors but in the bigs its a completely different story.. i can name about 10 minor league stars that turned out to be a complete bust in the bigs.
Comment on Jacoby Ellsbury "His defense and contact skills mean he can get by without the power, but as a leadoff hitter he'll need to do a better job of laying off pitches out of the zone." thats why he only struck out 15 times in his 120 AB... oh by the way, his ba was .353 with an OBP of .400... sounds pretty good for a leadoff hitter to me. (Kuroda) "At age 32, his ceiling is obviously quite limited, but in 2008 Kuroda should be good for 200 innings or so and a sub-4.00 ERA." - and what do you base that judgement off of? considering hes only pitched over 200 innings in TWO YEARS out of his 11 year career?
dont worry, ill stop here, that was just a sample. ill leave the rest to you to go over the garbage you typed and redo the article.

i dont mean to sound like an a**hole or anything but i will. your article is pretty much trash. ESPN could have used you for their commercial, you know where the guy's as.s was doing all the sports talking for him? next time you decide to write some garbage up please do yourself and all of us a favor, do some research before you write. who knows, even YOU might appreciate your own article more. peace be with you Dayn.
laseasportsfan This user has a blog
12/23/2007
11:52 PM (report inappropriate content)

moondawg, who the heck else has a rotation in the national league?
rbigdog
12/23/2007
11:50 PM (report inappropriate content)

It's amazing how a professional making millions, can be considered a rookie again, just by switching countries. Are the Americans considered rookies when the go play in Japan after years in MLB?

Hey Dayn Perry-
Joba throws FOUR pitches not three. His fastball and slider are the obvious two unbelievable pitches, but go back to the game against the Red Sox where he gave up his first run on a homer to Mike Lowell. Before that homer, he was mixing in his third, very above average pitch, the curveball. So refining the changeup would be his fourth pitch, just to make your article a little more accurate.
goldfish70
12/23/2007
8:10 PM (report inappropriate content)

Look Nadine

I don't recall writing that Ellsbury had had a full season in AA. I guess u must have ASSumed that was something that I was attempting to imply. Oh and by the way based on at bats no one in the league was remotely close for batting average. My comments were related to the entire year 2007 from AA to AAA to Major league and playoffs. Next time I will be more careful to spell it.
teddd
12/23/2007
6:58 PM (report inappropriate content)

anyone that doesnt have adam jones on their list doesnt know baseball...period. plus, he's on of the few listed prospects to get guaranteed playing time.
Dayn Perry This user has posted to their blog within the last day
12/23/2007
6:18 PM (report inappropriate content)

Fiddy-

I'd agree that Jay Bruce is the top prospect in baseball, but this isn't a straight ranking of prospects; it's a ranking of prospects who figure to have the biggest in 2008. Bruce may not make it to Cincinnati before mid-season. He's tremendous going forward, but his outlook in 2008 is less certain.

Bigcarm-

Hughes used up his rookie status last season, so he's no longer considered a prospect.
weeman_the_great
12/23/2007
5:49 PM (report inappropriate content)

Yeah...A YEAR AGO he was the #1 pitching prospect, but he isn't right NOW.
zdeane343 This user has a blog
12/23/2007
5:34 PM (report inappropriate content)

hey genius - ellsbury played in 17 games in AA when he hit .452, so lets not make him ty cobb yet.

who was rated teh #1 pitching prospect a year ago- hughes or bucholz? that was hughes so lets cool this bucholz is 10x better nonsense
MeFartSmelly
12/23/2007
5:28 PM (report inappropriate content)

I'm a lifelong dodger fan(40+ years) but I have to agree with moondawg78. Penny has always been a 5 inning pitcher, that was one of the knocks on him in Fla. Also he wears out after the all star break. Last year he held up better than usual but the previous year he was the all star starter then completely fell apart by the end of the year. Actually I think he might have even been out of the rotation by the end. He's a good pitcher but he's no ace. Derek Lowe is a good pitcher as well. Billingsley should be decent but the rest of the guys are all major question marks.
goldfish70
12/23/2007
2:11 PM (report inappropriate content)

Ellsbury batted 452 in double A ball. I know it is double A but how many bat 452??? In triple A he played less than half the season and was one of the leaders for stolen bases. While in the majors, although limited at bats his average was well into the 300's. His MLB playoff performance speaks for itself. If anyone doubts his ability they have to be either ignorant, a sox hater, or on crack.
weeman_the_great
12/23/2007
1:47 PM (report inappropriate content)

Bucholz is 10x better than phil hughs, it's obvious you just hate the red sox, you singled out the only 2 red sox on the list.Bucholz isn't good only because of the no hitter, he's good because he has GREAT pitchs. As for ellsbury he has insane speed great bat speed and he's a really good contact hitter.
Bigcarm This user has a blog
12/23/2007
1:01 PM (report inappropriate content)

The best pitching prospect in baseball is still Philip Hughs. You should know that it is not that rare for a rookie pitcher to pitch a no hitter in his rookie year. Remember the Billy Rohr of the Red Sox. Your allowing your judgement to be clouded by the no hitter and as a writer you should be professional enough to know that. I also think you a little to high on Ellersby. It is not unusaul for a rookie to come up and do what he did. Remember Kevin Maas of the yankees? He is good and should help the red sox but he is a long way from being a big star at this point. The yankees have a similar player in the minors named Gardner with blazing speed but little power. His lack of power is hurting his chances to make the majors as we speak so you should be carefull when you overrate players with limited power like Ellersby although I like fast players leading off. I also think you should have included honorable mention of two or three more players to make your article look more professional. That is what I would have done.
danpedraza
12/23/2007
12:14 PM (report inappropriate content)

What about Ian Kennedy of the Yanks? Hes not the 5th starter some of these so called experts claim he is. I think hes going to surprise alot of people.
FiddyFive
12/23/2007
11:15 AM (report inappropriate content)

Moondawg is way off base. The Dodgers easily have the best rotation in the NL. Who do you think is better? Brad Penny rivaled Jake Peavy as the best pitcher in the NL. Billingsley is already a #2 with ace potential. Derek Lowe is good for 12-15 wins per year and is perfectly suited for DS. Kuroda is also a groundball pitcher and Schmidt is far better than a #5 starter if healthy. If not you'll see a top prospect like James McDonald or Scott Elbert fill that role at some point during the season. Unless Loaiza can prove that he's not washed up, he'll be nothing more than bullpen fodder. Guys like Eric Stults, Mario Alvarez, Greg Miller, Hong-Chih Kuo, Eric Hull, DJ Houlton, Ramon Troncoso, Cory Wade, Justin Orenduff or even Jonathan Meloan may get a chance to start...all of which are far better bets than Loaiza with a lot more upside. That's not even factoring in the best pitcher in the minor leagues, Clayton Kershaw. MILB.com already has him ranked above Joba Chamberlain AND Clay Buchholtz so that's another ace in the pocket. Just wait for 2 years or so and the Dodgers will have the BEST ROTATION IN ALL OF BASEBALL.

Rotation of the Future
1. Brad Penny
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Clayton Kershaw
4. Derek Lowe
5. Scott Elbert
6. James McDonald

That's assuming that Derek Lowe leaves in free agency. If not, we'll be that much better.
FiddyFive
12/23/2007
10:39 AM (report inappropriate content)

I think you're totally overrating the Yanks and Sox on the list. There's no way Ellsbury should even be on that list. He's way overhyped and projects as a .300/10 guy at best. I'd rank guys like Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus and Cameron Maybin well above him. I'd also rank Joey Votto ahead of Daric Barton. Don't know if I'd include the Japanese players either. Sure, they could help their teams but there are other players out there with much higher upsides. Here's my rankings:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Joba Chamberlain (if he starts)
4. Evan Longoria
5. Clay Buchholtz
6. Colby Rasmus
7. Homer Bailey
8. Adam Miller
9. Joey Votto
10. Franklin Morales
moondawg78
12/23/2007
10:11 AM (report inappropriate content)

This Dayn Perry clown LOVES the Bums rotation. I mean, the deepest in the NL West, is he F-ing kidding?

Penny is great for 6 innings a start, Billingsley might be good, Lowe is better than average and then what? Kuroda? Kuo? Schmidt (who's coming back from significant injury/surgery and was fading anyway)? Loaiza?

I mean, I guess if depth means LA has a lot of starting pitchers, moron Perry is right. But who cares if the Bums have a lot of crappy arms.
BeanSweeney
12/23/2007
9:28 AM (report inappropriate content)

I pretty much agree with your analysis, with the exception of the two Japanese guys. Lumping them with rookies is accurate, but misleading.

Ask Drew & Pedroia what they thought of that Curveball he dopped on their asses in Fenway image

He has better fastball command than Clay, has 3 + pitches, 94+ fastball, exibited a good feel for the change in Trenton & he's also 1 year younger than Buchholz.

Redsox Fans says Lester is better prospect than Kennedy?

Paul122

You would, but the Twins wouldn't. Lester is a better prospect than Kennedy and Crisp is a better player than Melky. The only thing Melky has going for him is his price...Boston would kick in for a lot of Crisp's salary tho so it doesn't really matter. Kennedy, Melky, and company will not get it done unless boston backs out completely.

As far as control goes then yes, Kennedy is better, but unfortunately teams are going to gamble with "stuff" over control 9 out 10 times which makes Lester a more valuable commodity. Being left handed won't hurt his value either. I just can't see Minn. taking a deal headed by Kennedy when Boston has offered them a deal with Lester or Ellsbury.




rembrat

By no means does Jon Lester sit 88-91.. It’s more like 90-92 and he can reach 94 at times.

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/Jon_Lester.html

Check out the readings.

I’m not going to sit here and say Lester is better than Kennedy because I don’t base evaluations of pitchers who have only thrown 19 major league innings. Kennedy’s minor league track record doesn’t really tell me a whole lot either, only 27 games is not a big enough sample size for me.

Kennedy’s minor league BB/9 and K/9 are 3.14 and 9.97 respectively. I really doubt he’ll be able to maintain that K/9 rate in the majors. Going off his 19 major league innings [which isn’t bright to do but I’ll say it anyway] his BB/9 rose and his K/9 went down. [4.26, 7.11]

Lester has also seen a rise in his BB/9 and a step back in his K/9 numbers when compared to his minor league numbers. But the only difference is that we have seen a whole lot more of Lester.

Another thing I’d like to note is that the kid went though f*cking cancer, he has publicly stated that after the treatment he felt he didn’t have the stuff to blow it by hitters like he use to and I’m sure if he were a Yankee product each one of you would be screaming this in his defense and I know it’s true because every time I hear about Hughes it’s followed by “man he was great before his hammy and ankle deal” so please don’t try to tell me otherwise.

QUOTE(Riverhawk @ Dec 26 2007, 04:07 PM) *
Lester was praised back 2-3 yrs ago for having lightning stuff. I had heard Gammons and Shaug and many others brag about his mid to high 90s heat and a knee buckling curve that he could locate to any point of the zone. Well, then he graduated to the majors, where we got out of the hype and saw exactly what he was.

He doesnt throw mid 90s consistently. He sits more 89-91 and can occasionally reach 93. And what the pundits forgot to notice was how poorly he controls his fastball. It does have a lot of life to it and makes it a difficult to hit pitch, but he doesnt locate it well and it is not as hard as it was advertised.

And he does have a knee buckling curve, but he cannot locate it to save his life. Once again, his top 2 pitches are horribly controlled making his status as a top prospect/ future AS a distant fairy tale. He doesnt have the stuff that can make location less of an issue. And his 3/4 pitches are marginal at best.

In contrast, Kennedy has a 4 seamer that sits 88-91 (just like Lester) but it has lateral movement and he spots it on a dime. His slider, while not a plus pitch, is controlled impeccably. Kennedy's only plus pitch is his changeup which is once again, thrown to a spot, but he has perfect reproducibility of his FB motion, making it very difficult to hit. Then, he has his curveball, which again is average but is located well. Kennedy doesnt have the ceiling that Lester has, but he is a better pitcher now and a much better bet to continue to be a better pitcher for yrs to come. BUT, if Lester comes out throwing 93 consistently, locating it and snapping off that hard curve for strikes, then he surpasses Kennedy.


good post...another thing is the Twins have taken the likes of Santana and Liriano from other teams and done something to fix their mechanics or w/e to make them into dominant pitchers. I could see them doing it with Lester too

QUOTE(rembrat @ Dec 26 2007, 05:23 PM) *
Alright, I was making the point that if he were a Yankee product you guys would totally be using the cancer thing as a reason why his fastball has declined in speed. I didn’t mention the Twins anywhere in my post so I’m not sure why you bring them up.

Maybe it is the reason but the Hughes comparison doesn't make any sense either. It's legitimate to assume that Hughes' diminished stuff following his hammy pull is a short-term result of not being able to throw and not having full push-off power from that leg. That's not casting some brilliant light on him, that's reality. He pushes off with his legs. He hurt his leg. He wouldn't be as good until he's completely healed and back to strength.

Cancer is a different story.

Where Does Johan Santana Fit Best?

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=&categoryId=2521705

Latest from La Velle Neal on Johan -Santana smatterings
Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

http://nc.startribune.com/blogs/neal/
The Twins checked in with the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets just before everyone split for the holidays but nothing major appears to be heating up.
Yes, you just read the word Mets. Indications are that the Mets remain a viable destination for ace Johan Santana, and that the Twins like enough of their players that a deal could be worked out without shortstop Jose Reyes being part of the package.
Outfield prospects Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez have been mentioned in other reports as possible targets. Pitchers Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber are considered good prospects but it’s unclear how much the Twins like them. And, it’s unknown if there are any established players the Mets are willing to part with (Reyes and David Wright seem untouchable).
This is pure speculation, but you have to wonder if the Twins would prefer to deal Santana to a National League team. Santana, a career .258 hitter, would get the chance to swing the bat. And, except for interleague play, the Twins wouldn’t have to face him during the regular season.
Other than that, things appear to be dormant on the trade front (I was told, `dormant,’ definitely was a good word to describe dealings with the Red Sox). But, like I always point out, that could always change.
Also heard that, in some trade scenarios discussed with the Yankees, that lefthander Kei Igawa’s name has popped up. Igawa, 28, was 2-3 with a 6.25 ERA last season. There’s a belief that he needs to get out of New York to establish himself. And, of course, Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson isn’t afraid of such a project. It’s still believed that Phillip Hughes and Melky Cabrera would lead any package from the Yankees.
It appears that someone is still waiting for the other to blink. The Twins are aware that going to spring training with Santana isn’t the best scenario, but they’ll do it if they have to.
I can’t commit to filing a daily report, given that it’s the holidays. But if there’s anything worth blogging, you’ll be informed here.

Mitchell has no Subpoena power? How come Investigate Journalists came up a Evidence on from Bonds from SF without Subpoena powers who wrote Game of Shadows. Give me Break....