Johan Santana Rumors

Johan Santana Rumors

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
SI.com's Jon Heyman and the Minneapolis Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III recently weighed in on the Johan Santana situation.

* Neal says the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees have all had recent discussions with the Twins about Santana. He says the Twins have "stepped up their efforts" to make a deal before Spring Training.
* Heyman believes the Mets have taken the lead. He thinks it would take five or more prospects, and submission by the Red Sox and Yankees.
* Heyman says the Twins may prefer Carlos Gomez over Fernando Martinez. That would be good for the Mets, who do not want to part with Martinez.

Wednesday fodder
Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008

http://nc.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=310

First of all, the Twins continue to talk to the Mets, Red Sox AND YANKEES about deals for Johan Santana. Despite the Yankees claiming that they are out of the running, I’ve been told the Twins have spoken with all three teams in recent days.

This doesn’t surprise me. Both New York teams need starting pitching help. Mets starters were 66-53 last season, including 13 wins from Tom Glavine. The Yankees are counting on Andy Pettitte, who will turn 36 during the season, to lead their rotation.

I kept being told that the Twins are willing to go to spring training with Santana, although that would be the worst-case scenario. For now, the Twins have stepped up their efforts to make a deal with one of these teams before camp opens.

Back in December, I pointed out that the White Sox had 11 players under contract for a little under $100 million. Indications were that they were hitting their imposed payroll ceiling.

But GM Kenny Williams has continued to press forward. He traded for Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin. Quentin isn’t making much but Swisher will make $3.5 million this year as part of a five-year, $26.75 million deal.

This week, Williams signed Octavio Dotel for two years and $11 million and finalized the deal for Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez.

And Williams said today that more moves could be coming.

How can this be true?

Check out my man Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune and his reasoning for the White Sox adding to their payroll.

I’m not trying to stir dissension here, but how can the Twins justify their fiscal approach when the league is gaining on the NFL in terms of industry revenue?

AM says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:32 pm

Ditto on the nice point, JimCrikket. Look at it another way…if baseball had a similar financial landscape as baseball, with equal revenue sharing, would the Twins even consider trading Santana?

Bo says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm

Bad job waiting by Smith.

Now he is going to have to take a Hughes less package from the Yanks.

Craig says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:35 pm

Signing a 33 year old infielder like Lamb to a two year deal made little sense. He’s never been a regular. Can’t field 3B by all reports. That was a Bill Smith mistake.

As mentioned earlier, Monroe is roughly the equivalent of 2007 Punto as a hitter. Difference is, he doesn’t help you in the field like Punto does. Another Smith mistake.

Losing Garza by a team starved for starting pitching was Bill Smith’s biggest mistake.

Losing Bartlett on a team that is now desperately in need of some speed is a big mistake. All these slow, plodding guys the Twins have aren’t helping.

Adding Everett is okay.

Overall, Bill Smith is really struggling with the new job.

Coming_Former_fan says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:40 pm

HHHHMMMMMMMMM……the Twins weren’t aggressive last year when they had better opportunities to sign Hunter and Santana. This means that :
A: They thought this would be the year salaries went down
B: THE HAVE A NEW STADIUM AND DON”T NEED TO BE AGGRESSIVE. THEY HAVE COLUMNISTS WRITING ABOUT GREAT STADIUMS INSTEAD OF HOW A COMPETITIVE TEAM IS BEING GUTTED.

I’m thinking the answer might be B.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:43 pm

Craig, i wouldn’t be so quick to blame this teams problems on Bill Smith. If TR had a brain and some stones he would have locked up Santana and Morneau into long deals a year ago.

i think we’ve debated the garza for Young trade enough on this site.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:46 pm

accually i think that bill smith is doing a great job and the only reason TR resigned is because he didnt want to be in this mess and have people remember him for his big mistake.. well you know TR? we all put the blame on you and think that bill smith is doing a fantastic job

Coming_Former_fan says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm

Jon,

Do you think the Twins ever really wanted to lock up Santana? Do you remember Joe Torre’s last contract offer from the Yankees? Just enough to get him to say no. The Twins did the same with Hunter and Santana.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm

agreed. TR’s fear of a long tterm deals, is half the problem surrounding this team.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm

if we really didnt think we could sign torri hunter the red soxs were offering us a package centered around ellsbury…

and the phillies really wanted to pay a lot for sylva ….

Todd Anthony says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:49 pm

JC: not only does the NFL have revenue sharing, it also has a SALARY CAP.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:50 pm

Former Fan. I think if the Twins could go back to last offseason and lock up Santana they absolutely would have. He, in all likely hood would have cost the Twins less. He wouldn’t have had that leverage of upcoming free agency that he has now. TR blew it!

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:52 pm

Former Fan, I do agree with your assesment on the Twins approach with Hunter. They never really wanted him to agree to that. Santana is a different story. Now they’re just afraid of a long term deal being such a large % of payroll.

Craig says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:52 pm

Jon,

Oh yeah, it was Terry Ryan’s fear of long term deals causing all the problems. Pohlads were just begging Terry to lock these guys up with long term deals. Sure, sure, that was what happened.

Craig says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:55 pm

These blogs are the dumbest but funniest things.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm

Craig, have the Twins EVER offered a deal longer than 4 years to anyone ever?

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:00 pm

didnt joe mays get 5 years 20 mil? look how that ended up…..

Craig says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 pm

Well, as you know, Jon. Pohlads have been trying to sign these guys to long term deals. They have been trying to force Terry Ryan to give these players the money, but Terry has been refusing to spend it. Pohlads would have signed Hunter and Santana, money was no object, but Terry stood in their way. Just like you said.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm

liondragon, good catch on the Joe Mays deal. Let’s not compare him to Santana though

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm

ya well didnt we give kirby puckett 30 mil a year? highest payed contract ever? wow! and i thought that there was inflation in contracts not deflation….

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:03 pm

or did we give him 30 mil total? jeez i get confused lol

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:04 pm

jon,
true lets not compare…

Reality Check says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:05 pm

I personally think that even if the Twins offered Johan more money he would decline. Johan has expressed time and time again how he wants to play for a contender and the big stage.

Johan to Boston, I doubt he wants to be a Lefty in Fenway with the Green Monster.. Who does? Normally caught fly balls hit the wall and will increase any lefty pitchers ERA..

Mets, they have garbage to trade.. absolutely garbage .. and FMart is a baby, I am not putting my hopes on a 19 year old. I also have some inside info from a friend of his families.. So I will pass on FMART. FMART + 4 crapolas.. Mets can keep their lame deal.

I want 2 arms (one at least MLB ready) and 2 bats
so if I can get:

Kennedy and Horne or Humberto Sanchez
Cabrera and Tabata or Jackson (prefer tabata)

so

Kennedy, Horne, Tabata, Cabrera
Kennedy, Sanchez, Tabata, Cabrera
Kennedy, Horne, Jackson, Cabrera
Kennedy, Sanchez, Jackson, Cabrera

I would take any of those but not be overly excited..

However I would REALLY be excited about

Kennedy, Horne, Jackson, Tabata

If the Yankees would do that.. I am all in and HAPPY about it! But I doubt they would trade both jackson and tabata.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm

actually Mays was 4 year 20MM.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm

look at barry zito though.. once you have guarenteed money for that long (basically your career) they just dont even care (9-11 season for zito..) thats been the same with almost all the 5 year plus pitcher deals… only one i think had a winning record…… thats life for you…

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm

jon,
i didnt remember if it was 4 or 5.. but atleast i got the 20 mil right

Craig says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:07 pm

Never blame the generous, free spending Pohlads. It was all Terry’s fault.

Craig says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:08 pm

SHEESH!!!!

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm

It’s sad that we’re now settling on Ian Kennedy. Projected as a 4th starter at best. Not overpowering, and not sharp movement either. Tabata, from what I read is being questioned on his effort and “body thickness” (not kidding. We should have taken Hughes, Jackson, + a third

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:13 pm

Craig, No one is questioning the Pohlads cheapness. However, a year ago, we knew Hunter and Silva would be gone after ‘07, and we still did nothing to lock up santana. Now you can go back to your one person conversation.

wrathchild says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:13 pm

I admit that I was just as foolish as Bill on the Santana-trade issue. I really thought waiting for the best offer would yield the best reward. It certainly looks like this is not the case, as the offers seem to be scaling down. When there was talk of Angel/Dodger interest, I was all for a Santana trade. Now I don’t feel we can get fair market value for him. If we can squeeze a few bucks out of Pohlad, I think we would have a very legit shot at signing Johan. I’m basing this assumption on how Twin-friendly Johan has been throughout the trade rumors. He has really been fair to the team, and I think there’s still some loyalty there that the Twins should capitalize on. I know I’m dreaming, but heh, I’d rather handicap our year-to-year budget allowances than get a non-equitable return in a trade.

gobbledygookguy says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm

barry zito is a head a case and johan doesn’t deserve to be compared to him. he will compete every time he takes the mound no matter how much he’s paid. he’s a 2 should be 3 time cy young winner a gold glover and has never been on the dl and i can’t think of him missing any starts and he isn’t joe mays either. get real. it’s only money and the pohlads have more than god.

Patrick says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:16 pm

TR did blow it. No use cryin over spilled milk though. We just need to move on. Besides, depending on how this trade works out (specifically, if we get Hughes), it could be for the best. I also think signing Torii to anything more than a 3 year extension would have been a mistake. I’m glad we didn’t do that.

Craig-
Considering who we had manning 3B last year, Lamb was not a mistake. We lose a little on defense but that’s a position that you need to get some offensive productivity out of. Plus, if Everett is as good as advertised, he’ll make up for some of Lamb’s deficiencies.

Your Monroe comparison is lacking. First, hopefully he won’t start, unlike Punto who had no business starting. Second, he is not roughly the equivalent of Punto as a hitter. He’s a much better hitter than Punto. Without looking at 2007 which was a down year for both… well, it was a down year for Monroe and more of a norm for Punto. From 2002-06 Monroe averaged 22 HR and 80 RBIs. He averaged a .311 OPS and a .466 SLG. Over the same categories Punto averaged 2/22/.316/.324. It’s no contest who’s the better hitter. As for defense, Punto is vastly overrated. He makes some spectacular plays but overall, he’s nothing special.

Pitching has not been an issue for us over the last 5 years. It’s been our offense which needed upgrading. MOst people had been begging TR to trade a prospect or two for an offensive upgrade. He never pulled the trigger. Bill Smith did and he acquired one of the best young players in MLB in the process.

I liked Bartlett, but his glove hurt us a lot last year. For a guy who values defense above all, I’m surprised you count losing him as a mistake. Regardless, I agree that losing his speed will hurt. I liked him as a player but you have to give up something to get something back.

Bill Smith has had a very solid first winter. Especially if he gets an acceptable package for Johan.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:16 pm

ok maybe we are just trying to get reyes out of the mets atm.. maybe thats why a deal hasnt happened yet.. maybe bill smith thinks the fans will push a trade so much omar will pay full markey value..

dont be suprised if the deal ends up being
santana for reyes guerrs/martinez/gomez
or santana for hughes kennedy cabrera marquez/horne

wrathchild says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:19 pm

I love the optimism lion, but I think the offers are going to get worse, not better.

Steve says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm

Lion,

A ‘bet’ against that ever happening would be as safe as money in Pohlad’s wallet. Love your optimism…but

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm

yep Hughes with Kennedy is not an option for the Spanks

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:34 pm

would you guys take reyes straight up or would you ask for 1 more top prospect like guerra gomez or martinez? (santana trade)

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:37 pm

steve haven’t you heard yet pohlad doesn’t carry a wallet he shoves his money up his A_ _ and farts when he needs a 20 or he just plain has Smithers grab it out with his teeth

Robert says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:38 pm

Lion, the Mets aren’t even willing to give us Martinez, what makes you think they’ll give us Reyes?

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:39 pm

if we got reyes and put monroe in center that would be one heck of a lineup (if monroe does what he did on 06)

reyes
kubel
mauer
young
morneau
cuddy
lamb
monroe
harris

potential game winners in the whole lineup…… i wouldnt mind that at all..

and a pitching of..

liriano
baker
slowey
guerrier (i think he could be in the rotation and be a front of the rotation guy…)
boof/blackburn/swarzak/anyone else…

TwinkiePete says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm

liondragon,

All due respect, but seriously, you are crazy if you think we will get that for Santana.

For the final time, Reyes is NOT coming here. period. forget it. it’s not gonna happen. wow…

I don’t expect the offers to get better…

Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey and Humber is a pretty darn good offer as far as I’m concerned.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:41 pm

no robert,
they said they will give us martinez just not with guerra and gomez…

and just watch.. we will end up getting reyes and you mets fans (everyone on this blog) will start crying just like when you lost kazmir….

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:42 pm

get that A_ _ cash out mr smith like your bobbing for apples

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:43 pm

Pete is right. Personally I would take Martinez (assuming he would be offered), Gomez, Guerra, and Mulvey.

By 2009 or 2010 an outfield of Young, Gomez in CF, and Martinez isn’t too shabby

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm

why dont we trade for longoria? trade baker boof and punto. see what they say.

TwinkiePete says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:48 pm

Factoring in the economics of this trade, from the Mets perspective, a Reyes-for-Santana trade would be an incredibly huge price to pay, assuming they will also sign him to an extension.

Reyes is head and shoulders above any unproven player the Yankees or Red Sox could offer, which is why Reyes would never be traded to us in this type of deal. It’s a pipedream.

Additionally, Reyes and Santana have the same agent and it’s pretty clear that he wouldn’t want Reyes in Minnesota (because he will miss out on marketing opportunities, the NY market is better match for a player of Reyes’ ethnic background, etc).

Just forget it already.

gobbledygookguy says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:49 pm

new on si:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/01/23/scoop.Jan23/index.html?eref=writers

new or old take on santana trade

Reality Check says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:52 pm

Kennedy is a much better prospect than any of the Mets pitchers.. That kid may not have the power of Hughes but not all great pitchers are power pitchers..

He has a great arm and can really mix it up.. YOU want a guy like that in your rotation.. I personally think kennedy will mature into a solid #3 for the Yankees which is possibly a #2 for other teams.

Shame on Smith for not taking Hughes when he had the chance..

Seriously folks, people on this blog are acting like they should get in return as if Johan has 4+ years on his contract. If that was the case, they would get back more A players.

So since we are absolutely not going to keep Johan, then I say if we can get 1 MLB ready *good* pitcher such as Kennedy or Lester .. and 1 *great* prospect (Ellsbury, Tabata, Jackson) with 2 *good* (B) prospects.. Let’s get it over already!

Can we please just let the Mets keep their high schoolers?

Since the sox are only offering Lester or Ellsbury in separate pkgs .. If the Yankees offer me “Kennedy, Jackson” +2 prospects I am JUMPING ON IT@!!

It’s gotten out-of-hand already, I am not taking Johan to spring training or july 31 and risk getting 2 prospects!!!!!!

WTF, am I the only one seeing this clearly? I thought the Twins would’ve have grabbed Hughes at the Winter Meetings… as each day passes, they should’ve, no doubt about it!

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:53 pm

twinkie,
reyes is not the best shortstop in mlb.. hes not even the est in the nl. its goes like this for shortstops..

1.jimmy rollins
2.troy tullowitzkie (he will be first very soon)
3.hanley ramirez
4.jose reyes.

and i bet we could trade either nathan or santana to the rockies for troy.. with out problem.. the rockies already inquired on santana..

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:54 pm

i heard pohlad writes new contracts up on used toilet paper and used baby diapers because he believes in reusing certain items of interest to him

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:56 pm

jimmy bee,
he likes to use a diper? or does he use toilet paper and wrap it around him as if it was a diper cause its cheaper?

the Dragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:57 pm

I’ve got the obvious solution to the Santana issue. Sign him to a 7 year, $50-55 mil per year. He can’t turn that down, and all those complaining about the Twins low payroll will get their $100 million per year payroll. All solved in one signing.

Regards,

GENO says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:58 pm

If TR messed up is water over the dam now.If we can learn from past mistakes then it’s helpful

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:59 pm

the dragon,
“no comment”

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 1:59 pm

for the new stadium he will have certain promotional nights.

1 all you can eat reused corn night
2 all you can eat reused peanuts night
3 free used toilet paper night
4 posters of lew ford night

Patrick says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm

lion-
A lot of people think Longoria is the top prospect in baseball. Baker, Boof and Punto?! Come on, guy. That’s absurd.

TwinkiePete says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 pm

liondragon,

This isn’t fantasy baseball.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:01 pm

Reality Check, I’m with you for the most part. However, according to that article the Yanks are still offering Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, and a lower fourth. I would push for Hughes, Jackson, and Marquez, and no fourth.

j-sin says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:02 pm

wrathchild, very good points.

“I know I’m dreaming, but heh, I’d rather handicap our year-to-year budget allowances than get a non-equitable return in a trade.”

This is a very good point. Obviously we don’t feel the pain an owner feels of a Joe Mays salary going down the drain, but for an owner it would still be the better option than all the negative PR we see, even on espn articles.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:03 pm

anyone willing to talk to me who isnt a die hard mets fan who thinks reyes is like god? mlb has many short stops that are much better then him.. i think if their was a offer to omar of santana for reyes he would call the police and ask them if bill smith is telling the truth cause thats such a steal for the mets… you can get a star shortstop MUCH!!! easier then getting a star left handed pitcher… seriously you mets fans need to get out of your dream world. you guys think that all your people are like g-d.

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:04 pm

yeah i think we should take Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, and a lower fourth then turn and do a deal of

melk for coco crisp w/Boston

Doug Munson says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm

JC and JimCrikket- the other major difference betweenn the NFL and MLB is Guaranteed Contracts.I would venture to guess that the Twins would have no problems signing Santana to a seven year deal if they could terminate the deal due to performance or health issues ,like NFL teams can.

JimCrikket says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm

I wouldn’t put much stock in anything Heyman writes. He has no particular “inside information” and tends to be a couple of days behind on whatever is going on. I’m guessing he finally got around to reading what Joe posted a few days ago about the Mets being in the lead… and just hasn’t noticed yet the stuff already written about the Yankees no longer being willing to part with Hughes in any package.

T says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:06 pm

Munson…isn’t it amazing that a business built entirely on paying players for performance has absolutely no means of revoking said payments if players fail to perform?

I wish I could get that kind of job security, or is it more “financial” security at that point?

T says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm

Jon, I’d take Hughes/Cabrera plus those prospects…as Hughes and Cabrera fill immediate needs but also are young and fairly inexpensive at this point.

Not to mention that an outfield of Young/Cabrera/Cuddy would be near enough a nightmare for most opposing baserunners.

TwinkiePete says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm

Well, if you think there are better shortstops out there than Reyes, then why do you want him here?

Listen, I would love to have him here, but to even bring up Reyes in the same conversation as a Hughes, Kennedy, or Lester offer is insane. Reyes is an All-Star. They have proven nothing. The Mets have no reason to include him in a deal.

You need to step out of your bubble and look at this from an objective perspective for once instead of a fanboy.

Patrick says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:10 pm

lion-
I don’t know who the best is out of those 4 SS, but if I was a GM and I could choose one of them to build my team around, I’d go with Reyes. His speed and the fact that he still has so much more room for improvement would decide me. My list would be:
Reyes
Ramirez
Rollins
Tulo

Eric says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm

I see in Heyman’s latest, he states that the Twins might prefer Gomez over Martinez. How in the world can the twins go about trading Johan to the Mets if they can’t even get Gomez AND Martinez. Sad sad sad.

Doug Munson says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm

T-

I am a passionate hater of the NFL but I’ve got to give them props on how they run their business.Doesn’t anyone else think its funny that the PEDs issue that is plaguing baseball seems to be a non issue with the NFL, home to some of the greatest examples of “Bodies through Chemistry” known to man.The NFL is such a machine that these issues just seem to get swept under the rug.

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm

Is it just me or is every pic of Mr Smith show him just looking fat out of shape and sweaty. Maybe he is good at bluffing cause he doesn’t sweat when he lies he just always sweats

JimCrikket says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:18 pm

I think what would really be great for both the NFL players and MLB owners would be for Donald Fehr and Gene Upshaw to swap jobs for the next round of labor negotiations.

Baseball would end up with a salary cap and revenue sharing while the NFL players would end up with guaranteed contracts and medical benefits for life after football. For the life of me, I’ve never understood why NFL players continue to let Upshaw lead their union.

Mike Wants Wins says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:18 pm

All you pointing out how Lamb makes up for the Punto offense, don’t forget that Everett is terrible on offense compared to Bartlett, so those two positions might be a wash.

DH is better, as Kubel replaces a series of stiffs, but there is no CF on the roster yer, and, any CF they have will not replicate Hunters season from the last two years.

All in all, I’m not convinced the offense is any better than last year.

Mike Wants Wins says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:20 pm

JimCrikket, not only is Upshaw the leader, but he makes something obscene like $8MM per year or something. Cut that to $1MM per year and put the $7MM per year in savings in the injured player fund, and, wala, you’ve solved 2 problems.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:20 pm

your forgeting that tulo is a rookie.. he hit 24 home runs with a 300 batting adverage i believe and a gold glove defense.. i know reyes has speed but tulo is going to be a ss that can hit 30+ homers with a 300 batting and 110+ rbi.

reyes cant hit more then 20 homers and doesnt have the power and glove that tulo has.. reyes is a great lead off guy but he tulo is a star that would normally play 1st base or dh… this guy plays the hardest position and can hit like a first baseman.. thats something special…

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm

i hear in the middle of the night that sometimes when car alarms go off it is actually Mr Pohlad syphoning gas and sometimes it is just Mr Smith

Robert says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm

Did you guys know that when Alexi Casilla was playing A-level ball he stole 47 bases in 78 games? That is insane.



jimmy

I’m not even sure the Twins had the prospects for Haren. And if they did, the farm system, which is already bare, would be the worst in the majors

Paul says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm

All signs point to that they knew they weren’t going to sign Santana.

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm



jama with what we could or would’ve gotten for Santana we could spin it around into a 3 team trade and add a prospect of our own for the 2 pitchers and the salary for the 2 is around 12-14 mill. Harden or Haren would also have been a nice pick up as well

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:12 pm

Shields is 26. Not sure the figures yet, but I know 4 years are guaranteed. It’s just sad that the D-Rays recognize the importance of locking up talent (albeit marginal compared to Santana).

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:16 pm

You hit the nail on the head there. 4 years are guaranteed. If Santana wants a 7 year deal with only 4 guaranteed I’m sure the Twins would be all over that.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:16 pm

Looks like 7 year $40MM for Shields. Clearly not Santana money, but props to D-Rays for being proactive.

jhawk90 says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:18 pm

jhawk90-
What would you have them do?
……………………….

-front-load a Johan extension with signing bonuses now while they have the money. Who knows - this may have been tried already.

-lock up Kubel, Guerrier and maybe Cuddyer coming off a somewhat down year. Based on Kubel’s second half, here was a great opportunity to get a guy to commit cheaper than he’ll cost after this year.

-at this point, you have to get creative. Take on a Pierre to get another piece or two from the LAD for Santana. They’d probably give cash as well.

Minus Santana and Nathan, you’re looking at a 43 mil payroll. Prospects shouldn’t appease the fan base.

DL says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:18 pm

After all of this Santana speculation, I think the best trade we can do still lies with the Yankees. The Mets packages are too raw, and Phil Hughes has the most potential of any single player being offered to the Twins. Furthermore, Hughes would fill a hole in the rotation, and isnt eligible for free agency until 2013.

I disagree with trading for Ellsbury while he is sitting as his peak value, especially if we wont get an impact SP in return. If Ellsbury and Lester are in the same deal, then I say yes without question.

Until then, I take Phil Hughes.

Robert says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:19 pm

Let’s start a Corperation, make it public, then buy the Twins from Pohlad. It’ll be a non-profit so all income can go towards signing talent and draft bonuses etc.

DL says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:20 pm

Also, Ellsbury is represented by Scott Boras, which means if he hits the potential we want to see in him, we have zero chance of ever keeping him in a Twins uniform once he hits free agency

AM says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm

I’m also ok with trading Nathan after we sign Santana. Closers are a lot easier to find/develop than ace pitchers. How about Nathan for Carlos Gomez, given the Mets glut of OF? That would also bring payroll under $60m, I think.

jhawk90 says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm

Bedard has numbers that are approaching Johan type ones, with the glaring exception of IP and DL visits. He may never see 200 IP.

DL says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm

If we sign Santana, I think we should keep Nathan AT LEAST until the trade deadline. If we are serious contenders, we keep Nathan and take the 2 draft picks at the end of the year.

If we arent contenders then, we trade him to a team who will be looking for a bullpen arm (Mets, Brewers, Cubs, Braves) and add another peice to help us contend in 2009.

JimCrikket says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm

LEN3: “I’m not trying to stir dissension here, but how can the Twins justify their fiscal approach when the league is gaining on the NFL in terms of industry revenue?”

I see your point, but there’s something you’re leaving out. The NFL has this thing called revenue sharing. It’s one thing to point out that the two LEAGUES are nearing parity in terms of revenue levels, but as long as the teams within the leagues do not share that revenue similarly, I don’t think you can expect teams on the short end of the MLB revenue stick to shell out for salaries the way comparable NFL teams do.

coco says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm

Thank you La Velle. Keep it coming. This has been a fun off season to be a Twins fan!

Robert says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:27 pm

Coco: “Thank you La Velle. Keep it coming. This has been a fun off season to be a Twins fan! ”

That should say: “Thank you La Velle. Keep it coming. This has the potential to be a fun offseason to be a Twins fan but so far it has just been filled with frustration.”

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:27 pm

nice point Crikket

120 for 6 fan club —YES!!!

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:40 am

LEN III

If/when Santana is traded, when do you think Nathan will get shopped? Do you think they would try to trade him before ST also? Have you heard which teams are interested in Nathan and what his value might be? Thanks for keeping us updated. When you chime in on the blogs it is great.

jhawk90 says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:45 am

Again - it’s not even opening the wallet, it’s sticking to the previous plan and what you told season ticket holders in October - that payroll would maintain in the mid-70’s or more until the park opened.

Agreed - Hunter isn’t worth what he got, but what he wanted before the season started? Yep - he’s worth that.

Maver1ck says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:48 am

I agree with everybody saying we should have signed Torii for a more reasonable contract LAST offseason.

However, I agree with the opinion that Hunter would have cost too much for the Twins, and his value wouldnt have been worth the cost for this team if we had signed him to that 4-5 year contract he wanted THIS offseason.

Furthermore, we get 2 draft picks in the draft.

I applaud Bill Smith for that decision to let Torii go, but critisize Terry Ryan to failing to sign Hunter to 10M a year when he had the chance.

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:50 am

jhawk

I’m not sure Hunter will even be worth the $12 million or so that he wanted before this last season. Only time will tell but I think we have already seen the best of Torii and that he is going to be a 4th OF in another 3 years.

Egad says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:51 am

” It’s rewarding him and the fans with a superstar pitcher for the new stadium. ”

Rewarding the fans. What a concept. Why do I think it’s more likely Santana will be dealt for the change underneath some Eastern team’s couch cushions instead?

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:52 am

heres a name that pops up on someones list as our number 2 overall prospect…

Daniel Valencia
3rd baseman 23 years old
combined .297 adverage in low and high a ball with 17 homers and 66 rbis in 127 games. also had a .354 obp a .462 slg and a .816 ops..
16th round pick in the 2006 draft..

doesnt look so bad honestly.. what you guys think?

JayTEE says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:53 am

So far, so good for Bill Smith and he can top off a good winter by signing Johan. I have approached the trade possibilities with an open mind but believe that they all were a player or two away from being adequate and I don’t think they will suddenly sweeten. Count me in on the 6/120 club!
Sign Johan today.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:54 am

sorry my bad 19th round pick.. i get my 6’s and 9’s messed up

La Velle says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:55 am

I’m not touching that one, liondragon

ds says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:56 am

Re: Valencia.
Seems like a 23 year old in A-ball should put up good numbers. However, it’s better than putting up crappy numbers, so sure, I guess that doesn’t look bad.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:58 am

hes supposed to be a question mark.. he could be a late bloomer or a bust. who knows…

Patrick says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:58 am

jhawk90-
What would you have them do? The FA market was very thin this year. They made a big trade for a potential superstar and will probably make a blockbuster trade for more young players before ST. Whatever we get back for Johan will have to be looked at when we go back and rate Bill Smith’s offseason, but so far, he’s already put a better team on the field than what we had last year. And, most importantly to me, he hasn’t signed washed-up, bargain bin veterans as everyday players like his predecessor.

Lamb is light years better offensively than our recent third basemen. Everett is a nice stop gap. Whoever takes over SS next year, be it Casilla or Lowrie or whoever, can only be helped by Everett’s presence. Delmon Young will make up for Torii’s absence next year and he’s still developing. Once he starts figuring things out, he’ll far surpass Torii’s numbers. We got him for a high ceiling, potential front-end starter who had an attitude problem and couldn’t win a game in the dome. Harris is an offensive upgrade at 2nd. Perkins, Liriano, and Crain are coming back from injuries which will help solidify our pitching staff. The young guys who pitched last year will have one more year under their belts. Monroe gives us a 4th outfielder who provides pop off the bench.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:02 pm

why not put monroe in center? if he puts up 2006 numbers he will surpass torii hunter.. seriously i dont know why we would rather have cuddy in center then monroe…

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:05 pm

LA VELLE WHY DON’T THE TWINS PICK UP LETS SAY KAZMIR AND BEDARD FOR THE SAME PRICE AS SANTANA WOULD COST.
SP
BEDARD
KAZMIR
LIRIANO
SLOWEY
BAKER

jhawk90 says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:05 pm

jama

Maybe not - but when Zito signs 12/06 and it becomes real clear what Johan should get, you move on one or the other - especially with what they mean to the fan base. These are the kind of moves a new stadium was supposed to allow the Twins to make - not the big FA signings, the keeping of their own talent.

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:06 pm

cause our farm stinks jimmy…
we dont have the prospects…

KB says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:06 pm

Sure, that would work, then we can trade Punto for Jose Reyes. Seriously.

Jon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:07 pm

Good God, the D-Rays just gave James Shields a 7 year deal, and we won’t giive Santana 6 years. Aggravating!

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:08 pm

jimmy

The O’s are asking for as much if not more for Bedard than the Twins are asking for Santana. Who would the Rays want that the Twins have to trade for Kazmir?

liondragon says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:08 pm

we would have to trade robertson ploffe parmelle and blackburn for bedard kazmir or reyes…

jimmy bee says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm

WE COULD HAVE GONE AFTER HARDEN OR HAREN AND THEY DIDN’T ASK MUCH FOR EITHER ONE

markominne says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm

Liondragon - I suspect Monroe’s L/R splits scare them off, and remember that his 2006 numbers were followed by his 2007 numbers, which while not Punto-like, at least approach LNP’s magnificent 2007 performance.

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:10 pm

Jon

I haven’t seen that deal, what are the numbers? Also how old is Shields compared to Santana? I’m sure if Santana would want a 7 year deal at an average salary of $10 mil the Twins would be glad to offer it to him.

Patrick says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 12:11 pm

ld-
Those prospects wouldn’t be enough for any of those guys

Thanks for the update. Have you heard any talk over the past few weeks about the Twins reopening negotiations? The line we heard after the 5/93 offer was rejected was that the Twins and Greenberg/Santana agreed that the Twins could entertain trade offers, and I believe it was either stated or implied that if nothing good was offered, they would talk again. Any word on this?

Second point: How much are the Twins getting in luxury tax? Let’s sign Santana for that amount, which would essentially mena that the Yankees are paying his salary from their luxury tax payments.

La Velle says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:21 am

Good question Todd Anthony.
A GM can only be as aggressive as ownership allows him to be. Ryan has gotten a lot of blame for how last season went, and has accepted responsibility for it. But what about the man who write the checks?

GENO says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:23 am

Todd Anthony-Bad PR,agreed.Almost as bad as when Pohlad and Selig tried to make the Twins go away 5 or 6 yrs ago.Unfortunatly,Carl doesn’t give a darn what we think.

jhawk90 says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:23 am

Didn’t Hunter want around Matthews Jr. money - 5/50? How’s that look now?

There is no rational explanation other than the land and stadium money is being recouped - plain and simple.

AM says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:24 am

And yes, I am part of the 6/120 club. If he’s worth 5/93, which we have already offered, (and Silva is worth 4/48) Santana is definitely worth an extra year/extra $27m, which is 6/120.

La Velle says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:24 am

It doesn’t look like the Twins are willing to go to six, seven years for a contract extension. I have mixed feelings on that because a four-year $20 million extension is a lot of money and I’m kind of surprised Santana wouldn’t at least think about five years. I keep hearing he wants six or seven years.

TC the Bear says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:25 am

If you add up all the money the Twins waste on mediocre players, they could have saved enough by now to pay for a couple years of Santana’s contract. Especially after Hunter’s 13 million is off the books. If you want to talk long term, does it make more sense to patch our rotation with a series of average veterans demanding 3 or 4 year contracts for 40 million, or take a shot for the next five years with Santana - Liriano - Baker - Boof- Slowey?

It is a lot of money, but now with the market the way it is, I am coming arund to the sign Santana idea.

I was for trading him for prospects, even last summer, but the prospects aren’t that good, the trading pool teams are too limited, and there demands are unreasonable. It now appears to make more sense to sign Santana, see how we shake out this year, add the one or two pieces we need going into 2010 and win the whole damn thing.

KB says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:27 am

I agree 100% that the mistake was made in not going after these guys last off-season. I don’t know if TR or the owners are more to blame.

It’s just as dangerous and stupid to feel like you have to put a bottom to the payroll as putting a cap on it. Spend the money to keep quality players. Look what spending money to make it look like you are doing everything to be competitive got the T-Wolves.

La Velle says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:27 am

I’m also wondering if the Twins know the cost of the stadium will be over budget - which they are on the hook for. We saw a stadium presentation last week and it looks like a lot of things are being tweaked to really make it look nice.

In fact, I will blog about what I learned about the stadium design sometime over the next few days. I got fired up looking at it.

TC the Bear says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:29 am

Construction projects, especially of the Stadium scale, are rarely within budget, they have to know that.

KB says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am

I’ve said all along….if you don’t trade Santana now, you have to sign him at whatever the cost.

It doesn’t matter if the prospects are “what you want”….if you aren’t going to sign him, you have to take them. It’s your own fault (as an organization) that you are in this spot.

I think the Twins know if they can sign Santana or not and they know what the offers are going to be. Why would the Sox, Mets or Yanks suddenly up their offers?

GENO says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am

LEN-It all comes back to the man who writes the checks.

KB says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:31 am

Fired up in a good way, or bad?

AM says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:31 am

I know that long-term contracts on pitchers are a big risk. But injury-free, multi-CY Young award winning, in-their prime,lefties, who are great team players come along…well, never. If the Red Sox are willing to give seven years, that says a lot–that this is an exceptional case. I think the Twins need to reward Santana with an offer of an extra year. Compromise on 6 total years instead of the 5 we offered and the 7 he wants. It’s rewarding him and the fans with a superstar pitcher for the new stadium.

Patrick says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:31 am

With the regime change I’m just looking forward to a more aggressive effort in signing our key players. TR made some mistakes but there’s no use getting pissed about them now.

I think Bill Smith has had a good off season. Depending on how the Santana situation plays out it could be a VERY good off season.

Lamb and Everett are solid additions and the Garza/Young trade was inspired. Monroe will be a viable power threat off the bench. We’ve improved across the board and with people returning from injuries our team will be much improved. Letting go of Tyner and Ford was necessary and overdue. Now we just need a leadoff hitter…

BBSTC-
Only if it was to the Cubs.

TC the Bear says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:32 am

I just want to be excited about the team going into the stadium. What percentage of Twins fans thinks from their perspective, that the Twins are following through on there end of the stadium deal - which is putting a World Series caliber team on the field by 2010?

I am guessing this is a low number. We can’t all be wrong? right? The Twins are dropping the ball. plain and simple.

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:34 am

I don’t mind letting Hunter go, I don’t think he will be worth the last 3 years of his contract even if you only paid him $5 mil per. I do agree that getting Santana signed to an extension last off season before Zito signed would have been huge. They could have probably gotten him to sign for around $15 million per season.

Maver1ck says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:35 am

I think the Twins should offer a 6 year deal, and if Johan says no, then trade him before ST starts.

jhawk90 says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:37 am

Singing a bunch of 1-year deals and one 2-year deal doesn’t make a good off-season IMO. It’s spackling with maybes and smacks of not having a plan other than cost control. Easier to sell to the public when it’s a new guy. If TR ever takes another gig elsewhere, that’s the ultimate sign we’ve been had.

Chad says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am

It’s nice to see a little criticism of the Twin’s they deserve it. I would like to see some of the Star Tribune writers start pounding on the Twin’s Souhan etc. Put pressure on them too open up there wallet’s and sign Santana. Instead of just accepting that we can’t afford good players.

jama says:

January 23rd, 2008 at 11:38 am

TC

Would you rather the team compete now and then be middle of the road in 2010? Or be middle of the road now and then compete in 2010? I think that is the dillema and I don’t think they can be competetive now and later with the way the organization is structured.

(Fast) food for thought, $$$ edition

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/01/fast-food-for-1.html

By Phil Rogers, 3:19 p.m.

We're months away from knowing if the 2008 White Sox will be any good, but we do know this -- they certainly aren't cheapskates.

With Tuesday's official signing of Octavio Dotel and Alexei Ramirez, the White Sox now project to have a payroll of $118 million. That's an increase of $9 million over 2007, which reflects the increased revenue pouring into baseball's central fund.

An early, unofficial calculation places the White Sox sixth overall with that $118 payroll. The leaders are the Yankees, at $230 million; Red Sox, $170 million; Tigers, $133 million, Angels, $125 million, and Cubs, $120 million. The smallest payrolls: Florida, $17 million; Tampa Bay, $40 million; Washington, $42 million, and Pittsburgh, $50 million.

2. This unofficial calculation, put together with the cooperation of reporters covering all the teams, shows that 19 of the 30 teams anticipate having payroll increases. Eight are rolling back salaries, three are essentially staying the same. The industry's combined payroll figure (not including benefits) is at $2.638 billion -- an increase of almost 9 percent from the total of $2.424 billion on Opening Day, 2007.

The biggest increases belong to the Yankees ($40 million), the Tigers ($38 million), the Red Sox ($27 million) and the Cubs ($20 million). The biggest cuts are by Florida ($14 million), Oakland ($9 million), Minnesota ($9 million), Baltimore ($8 million) and Texas ($8 million). Obviously all of these figures are subject to change by any significant transaction, the biggest of which could be a Johan Santana trade.

3. So why is the American League so dominant in recent years? Follow the money.

Despite having two fewer teams, the AL is currently in line to spend $222 million more than the National League on salaries in 2008. The 14 AL teams average $102.1 million in payroll; the 16 NL teams average $75.5 million.

This is not just about the Yankees and Red Sox, either. Take them out of the equation and the AL average is $85.8 -- more than $10 million per team more than the NL average.

4. While the NL Central has long been MLB's great land of opportunity, the off-season spending by the Cubs and Pirates and some built-in payroll increases on the Cardinals has carried the Central past the NL East. The six Central teams are looking at an average payroll of $75.6 million, while the East projects to $71.4 million per team, thanks largely to the cuts of the Marlins and the Mets remaining static.

5. Ten of the 30 teams project payrolls of at least $105 million. There were seven such teams at the start of the 2007 season.

The Yankee payroll seems way off. Here is what I have so far (hypothetical 25-man), making certain assumptions for rookies and arbitration cases.

2008
Jorge Posada $13,000,000
Bengie Molina $2,000,000
Jason Giambi $21,000,000
Wilson Betemit $1,165,000
Robinson Cano $4,000,000
Derek Jeter $22,000,000
Alex Rodriguez $27,500,000
Hidecki Matsui $13,000,000
Johnny Damon $13,000,000
Bobby Abreu $16,000,000
Melky Cabrera $432,400


Kei Igawa $4,000,000
Phil Hughes $432,400
Joba Chamberlain $432,400
Ian Kennedy $432,400
Edwar Ramirez $432,400
Andy Pettitte $16,000,000
Mike Mussina $11,250,000
Chien Ming Wang $4,000,000
Carl Pavano $9,900,000
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000
Kyle Farnsworth $5,916,667
Jose Veras $382,475
Brian Bruney $700,000
LaTroy Hawkins $3,750,000
Total: $205,726,142

Chat with Baseball America's Jim Callis
[quote]
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=18927


Welcome to The Show! On Wednesday, Baseball America's Jim Callis will chat it up with SportsNation. Ask any question and he will try to answer - big leaguers, prospects, draft picks ... anything goes!

Send your questions now and join Jim on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET!

Baseball America Archives: Chats

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:00 PM ET ) Hi, everyone. No East Coast Bias today! I'll take one question about each of the 30 teams before we double up on anyone. Starting . . . now!

McNulty (Baltimore): Hey Jim, which Ranger prospect has the chance to have the biggest impact this year?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:03 PM ET ) The Rangers have a much improved farm system, but much of their talent is at the lower levels. Aaron Fitt, who did our Top 30 list for Texas, tabbed Luis Mendoza as the rookie likely to have the biggest impact on the Rangers in 2008. Texas got him from Boston in a deal for Bryan Corey in July 2006. Mendoza has a hard sinker and could help in relief. I wouldn't rule out someone like Chris Davis accelerating his timetable and making his presence felt in Arlington, however.

Luke (Des Moines): Hey Jim! Is the Twins farm system in the 20s overall? I mean, Nick Blackburn at #1?!?! Will he even rank in the Top 100? Is this Carl Pohlad's fault? Are there any players you really like in that system?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:07 PM ET ) We ranked that system at No. 18 in the Handbook, though those rankings will change slightly (the A's, for one, have acquired a lot of talent) in our Minor League Preview issue this spring. Blackburn's stuff is more impressive than his strikeout numbers, but he really turned a corner in 2007. He may rank in the bottom half of the Top 100--as I've said many times, the overall minor league talent is not the most inspiring this year. The Twins didn't have a clear No. 1. Blackburn fits the bill, but that honor could have gone to Wilson Ramos, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Swarzak . . . you could even make a case for Ben Rever if you wanted. Pohlad does need to spend more money on his club. The Twins generally do a good job of scouting, but they had a ton of picks in 2004 and might not get anything great out of that crop. I do like the guys I just mentioned, but in an ideal system none would be your No. 1 guy.

Luke (Des Moines): If you could have 1 minor league third baseman, who would it be?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:07 PM ET ) Evan Longoria would be an easy choice. There's our Tampa Bay question.

Ron (Chatham, Ontario): Jim, who do you see as the Padre regular third baseman in 2008; Kouzmanoff, Headley, or someone else? Does your answer change if you look ahead to 2009?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:08 PM ET ) Sounds like they're keeping Kouzmanoff at third and will try Headley in the outfield. I don't think Kouzmanoff is a good defender, so I think in 2009 you'll see Headley at the hot corner and Kouzmanoff somewhere else where he'll do less damage.

Snake (St. Louis, MO): Jim- My friend, Cloudson, is a huge KC Royals fan. What words can you share with him to make him optimistic about the upcoming season?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:09 PM ET ) Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will continue to get better. And Mike Moustakas and Daniel Cortes will continue to boost their stock in the minors. As far as contending? No chance.

Ray: Cranston RI: What kind of ceiling do you think Will Middlebrooks has? Top prospect or just middle of the road?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:11 PM ET ) Top prospect. I don't see Middlebrooks staying at shortstop, but I think he'll be an athletic third baseman with a productive bat.

Mark (UMass Amherst): Adam Miller- will he be a factor in the Indian's rotation, Indian's bullpen, another team's staff, or the Indians injury report? Why? Is this his make or break year?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:13 PM ET ) He'll get a shot to make the bullpen this year. They're going to ease the pressure on him and his arm, but he's still viewed as a starter in the long run. It's not a make-or-break year--with his arm, he'll get a bunch of chances.

Brent (The O.C.): Jim-If Andy LaRoche were to win the 3rd base job for the Dodgers this sprin, what do you think his numbers will look like? I really don't see Colletti letting him have the job. I see him being a bench player this year and filling in when Nomar goes down.

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:15 PM ET ) I'd like to see him get the chance too. As a rookie, LaRoche could hit .270 with 20 homers.

Adam Bel Air, Maryland: Will Wladmir Balentien ever play in an All-Star Game at the major league level?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:16 PM ET ) I'll say no, because I still don't think he'll produce consistently enough. But the raw tools are there, he has improved and he's young, so I could be wrong on this one. That's just my gut feel. That's our Mariners question.

Jason(NJ): Are you going to cover the High School ranks too. Is Tim Beckam going to remain a SS, or will he have to move. And is he the #1 pick this year?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:16 PM ET ) Non team-related question: Yes, he can remain a shortstop. In the last Ask BA (see baseballamerica.com), I projected Beckham to go No. 1 overall to the Rays.

Brian (Alexandria): What are your thoughts on the future of Jordan Zimmermann? How do you project him?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:17 PM ET ) I thought he was a steal for the Nationals in the second round. If not for a freak injury--broken jaw when hit by a BP grounder--he would not have lasted that long. I think he can be a No. 3 starter and will move quickly in the Nationals system.

jay(newark): Middlebrooks is what teams' question? sorry haven't heard about him.

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:18 PM ET ) Red Sox . . . I'll try to specify!

T( ny): what are your thoughts on Matt Dominguez, never hear about him anymore since moustakas gets all the pub.

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:19 PM ET ) This is our Marlins question . . . Dominguez and Moustakas played together at Chatsworth (Calif.) HS before becoming first-round picks last June. Dominguez is one of the best defensive third basemen to come out of the draft in recent memory--only Ryan Zimmerman was held in higher regard. He has the tools to hit--though not as well as Moustakas will--but needs to adopt a consistent approach.

Andrew (London): Jim, can you offer some insights into Dylan Owen? I'm a Mets fan who regularly follows their farm system, and even I hadn't heard of him until very recently, despite his ridiculous numbers in short-season A (10 starts, 7-1, 1.82 era, 52 strikeouts, 11 walks, 54.1 innings).

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:21 PM ET ) Owen would have made the Top 30 in the Prospect Handbook if the Mets hadn't Rule 5ed Steven Register. You can check out a full scouting report for Owen at baseballamerica.com, as he's part of what we call "The 31st Team"--all the reports that were written but didn't make the book. Owen had great numbers in his debut and was the NCAA D-II pitcher of the year, but he looks more like a good org player than a prospect. He's not projectable and he has below-average stuff. Here's the link for The 31st Team: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265470.html,

Ben (Centerville, OH): Any firm date on when the Prospect Handbook is hitting shelves in stores yet?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:22 PM ET ) Mid-February.

Ben (Centerville, OH): Would the Reds be best served to let Johnny Cueto work all year in AAA and refine his game and bring him up next year, or should he be starting by mid-season?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:23 PM ET ) I'd give him a full look in spring training. On pure talent, he's one of their five best starters. If he's ready for the majors, bring him up, especially with the Reds trying to contend.

Chad (Rochester NY): Hey Jim, I just got a subscription to BA and love it!! Could you tell me where you would rank the Braves farm system? Bill Ballew says it should be in the top 12. Do you agree? Thanks Jim!

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:24 PM ET ) We ranked them No. 8 in the Handbook. They have restocked quickly after slipping to No. 16 last year.

Lionel (MA): Is "stuff" overated when some guys just know how to pitch? (Maddux is the easy example at this stage) I only ask because owen put up sick #'s but you discount him because you say he has below average stuff.

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:25 PM ET ) He put them up in the New York-Penn League, which is why I discounted them. In a lot of cases, pitchers with good command can succeed in Class A and below on that alone. Stuff is going to matter a lot more in Double-A and higher.

Rich (DC): Hi Jim, Jesus Montero: Does he stick behind the plate? Surprised by his invite to ST? Ceiling?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:27 PM ET ) There were more encouraging reports than I expected in 2007 about his defensive work, but he's already very big and hefty, and he threw out just 3 of 32 basestealers in the Gulf Coast League. So I remain skeptical. Not surprised by his invite--teams always invite a ton of catchers. His power gives him an all-star ceiling.

Jason(NJ): Is Villalona comparable to Miguel Cabrera at this point? Will he outgrow SS/3B and be forced into the OF? Thanks

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:28 PM ET ) Yes, that's a fair comp with the understanding that it's still very early in his career. No shot at SS, 3B is iffy--he's probably going to be a 1B.

Anthony (nyc): let me know how many of your subscribers are reds, cardinals and brewers fans then let me know how many are red sox's, mets and yankees fans. u might find out one question from each team is not a good idea.

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:28 PM ET ) We'll refund your money at the end of the chat.

Hulk Hogan (OVC): Why isn't Rowdy Hardy, the Royals Minor League Pitcher of the Year, rated in their Top 10?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:29 PM ET ) Argh . . . I've already done a Royals question . . . It's another concern about stuff. He has an 82-84 mph fastball and a below-average curve. He does have a plus changeup and plus command, but that's not a typical big league profile.

Billy (Oakland): Jim -- Why are you always so down on Daric Barton? I can remember 3 chats in which you, essentially, called him overrated. Can you explain please?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:30 PM ET ) I do love his control of his strike zone, and I think he can hit for average. But the downside is that he's a DH (he's not a good 1B and doesn't work at it) and I think his power tops out around 15 HR a year. He's a big leaguer, but I don't see him being more than a decent regular.

Chase (Pleasanton, CA): How much will UCLA's SS (and pride of Foothill High School) Brandon Crawford's poor summer performance hurt him during regular season play?

(Fast) food for thought, $$$ edition

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/01/fast-food-for-1.html

By Phil Rogers, 3:19 p.m.



An early, unofficial calculation places the White Sox sixth overall with that $118 payroll. The leaders are the Yankees, at $230 million; Red Sox, $170 million; Tigers, $133 million, Angels, $125 million, and Cubs, $120 million. The smallest payrolls: Florida, $17 million; Tampa Bay, $40 million; Washington, $42 million, and Pittsburgh, $50 million.

2. This unofficial calculation, put together with the cooperation of reporters covering all the teams, shows that 19 of the 30 teams anticipate having payroll increases. Eight are rolling back salaries, three are essentially staying the same. The industry's combined payroll figure (not including benefits) is at $2.638 billion -- an increase of almost 9 percent from the total of $2.424 billion on Opening Day, 2007.

The biggest increases belong to the Yankees ($40 million), the Tigers ($38 million), the Red Sox ($27 million) and the Cubs ($20 million). The biggest cuts are by Florida ($14 million), Oakland ($9 million), Minnesota ($9 million), Baltimore ($8 million) and Texas ($8 million). Obviously all of these figures are subject to change by any significant transaction, the biggest of which could be a Johan Santana trade.

3. So why is the American League so dominant in recent years? Follow the money.

Despite having two fewer teams, the AL is currently in line to spend $222 million more than the National League on salaries in 2008. The 14 AL teams average $102.1 million in payroll; the 16 NL teams average $75.5 million.

This is not just about the Yankees and Red Sox, either. Take them out of the equation and the AL average is $85.8 -- more than $10 million per team more than the NL average.

4. While the NL Central has long been MLB's great land of opportunity, the off-season spending by the Cubs and Pirates and some built-in payroll increases on the Cardinals has carried the Central past the NL East. The six Central teams are looking at an average payroll of $75.6 million, while the East projects to $71.4 million per team, thanks largely to the cuts of the Marlins and the Mets remaining static.

5. Ten of the 30 teams project payrolls of at least $105 million. There were seven such teams at the start of the 2007 season.