HANK, HAL, & CASH: FANS WANT ANSWERS

http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_01_27_baseballblog_archive.html#143807272323826459



The early days of this blog were filled with a "Free Johan Santana!" campaign that urged the Twins to move their young left-handed phenom into the starting rotation. After Santana spent the majority of four years in the bullpen and another half-season at Triple-A, the Twins finally gave him a permanent spot in the rotation to begin the 2004 season. He immediately became the best pitcher in baseball, winning the AL Cy Young by going 20-6 while leading the league with a 2.61 ERA and 265 strikeouts.

In four seasons as a full-time starter Santana went 70-32 with a 2.89 ERA and 983 strikeouts in 912.1 innings, winning two ERA titles and three strikeout crowns while capturing a pair of Cy Young awards and deserving a third. It was an amazing metamorphosis. At 21 years old Santana was a little-known Rule 5 pick who showed some promise, at 23 years old he was an ace-in-waiting who dominated from the bullpen or rotation, and at 25 years old he was the best pitcher in baseball.

Now 28 years old, Santana has established himself as both one of the most successful pitchers in Twins history and one of the greatest left-handers of all time. Three weeks into this blog's existence there was an entry that began with this proclamation: "I suspect that many of you aren't very familiar with Mr. Santana, but with the way he's pitched this season that may change very quickly." And now, a little more than five years later, today's entry is about how the Twins traded Mr. Santana to the Mets.

Santana and the Mets still need to work out a long-term contract extension before the trade becomes official, but assuming that happens the Twins will receive outfielder Carlos Gomez and right-handers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber. Baseball America's recent breakdown of the Mets' farm system ranked those four players as the team's No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 7 prospects, but the Twins unfortunately weren't able to get No. 1 prospect Fernando Martinez included in the deal.

Trading the best pitcher in baseball without getting the Mets' top prospect in return is disappointing and without Martinez the package falls short of the deals that were rumored to have been offered from the Yankees and Red Sox. A month ago the Twins were said to be deciding between packages headed by Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jon Lester, and earlier this month they were reportedly pushing the Mets to include Martinez. Instead, they end up with none of those four players.

Either the oft-cited rumored offers involving Hughes, Ellsbury, and Lester were never actually on the table to begin with or general manager Bill Smith waited so long to pull the trigger that the Yankees and Red Sox eventually decided to take them off the table. All of which is what makes evaluating the package that the Twins ended up accepting somewhat tricky. On one hand, it seems fairly clear that the Twins would have been better off making Hughes or Ellsbury the centerpiece of a Santana trade.

Those two players possess the best combination of long-term upside and major-league readiness, so if at any point Smith passed on offers involving Hughes or Ellsbury then he made a big mistake and ultimately had to settle for something significantly less than the best possible package. On the other hand, when judged on its own and not compared to other offers that may or may not have been on the table, the Mets' package is a decent one.

It seems natural that a team should be able to have its pick of elite prospects when trading away baseball's premiere pitcher, but from the Twins' perspective all they were truly shopping was one season of Santana. While that's plenty valuable, getting four solid prospects for one season of any player seems reasonable. Of course, had the Twins kept Santana this season and simply let him walk as a free agent, they also would have gotten a pair of first-round draft picks as compensation.

Given that, what the Twins really gave up was one season of Santana and a pair of draft picks. That complicates things a bit, but four solid prospects still seems like a relatively palatable return given the added cost and uncertainty of draft picks. Still, my suspicion is that the Twins could have done better and perhaps cost themselves a chance to get the maximum return for Santana by attempting to squeeze extra value from teams.

In poker terms, Smith slow-played a big hand and ended up dragging in less than the maximum pot. It's hard to swallow the possibility that the Twins missed out on acquiring Hughes and Melky Cabrera or Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. Those were very good offers for Santana and without Martinez included the Mets' offer falls short of those standards. However, there's a difference between the Mets' offer not being the best one and the Mets' offer not being a decent one.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2002, Gomez has been rushed through the Mets' system and made his major-league debut as a 21-year-old last season despite logging just 36 games at Triple-A. He predictably struggled and there was little reason to push him so aggressively given his mediocre track record, suggesting that Gomez's development would benefit greatly from some additional time in the minors. Here are his combined numbers between Double-A and Triple-A:

G PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO SB
156 643 .282 .354 .421 9 51 42 120 58

Gomez is already a strong defensive center fielder and an excellent base-stealer with game-changing speed, but his bat leaves a lot to be desired. He's often talked about as a five-tool player, but with just nine homers and a .139 Isolated Power in 643 plate appearances his power has been modest so far. Beyond that, his 120-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio shows poor plate discipline and sub par strike-zone control, both of which are concerns for someone who the Twins no doubt view as a leadoff man.

The Twins may be tempted to make Gomez their Opening Day center fielder, but he looks likely to be overmatched in the majors at this point and the team would be better off delaying his arrival by signing someone like Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson to a one-year deal. Gomez has the talent to be an impact player in time, but he's yet to convert his tools into great on-field performance and is far from a sure thing to ever become an above-average regular, whereas Ellsbury is basically already there.

Even more so than Gomez, Guerra is the high-risk, high-upside part of the package. Signed out of Venezuela for $700,000 in 2005, he's another example of the Mets needlessly rushing their prospects, spending last season at high Single-A as an 18-year-old. Guerra held his own there, posting a 4.01 ERA and 66-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 89.2 innings, which is plenty impressive for a teenager who was facing much more experienced competition.

Guerra throws hard and at 6-foot-5 there's plenty of room to project even more velocity, but he missed time with a shoulder injury last season and has a long way to go before reaching the majors both in terms of time frame and development. Had he been with the Twins, it's possible that Guerra would have spent last season at rookie-ball. He has the highest ceiling among the four players acquired for Santana, but also carries by far the most risk.

While Gomez and Guerra are all about projection and development, Mulvey and Humber are close to being MLB-ready and aren't especially far from reaching their relatively modest ceilings. Humber was a dominant pitcher in college, going 35-8 with a 2.80 ERA and 422 strikeouts in 353 innings at Rice University, and the Mets thought that they had a future ace when they took him with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft.

Humber's heavy college workload caught up to him just 15 starts into his pro career and he underwent Tommy John elbow surgery in 2005. He returned to the mound in the middle of the next season, but left some of his velocity on the operating table and hasn't been the same pitcher since. Once regarded as a potential No. 1 starter, Humber now looks like middle-of-the-rotation material after posting a 4.27 ERA and 120-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 139 innings at Triple-A as a 24-year-old.

Mulvey was a second-round pick out of Villanova in 2006 and reached Triple-A near the end of last season after posting a 3.02 ERA and 124-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 173 pro innings. While Humber is a fly-ball pitcher who has had problems keeping the ball in the ballpark post-surgery, Mulvey does a much better job inducing ground balls and has served up a total of just five homers in 173 innings. He also projects as a mid-rotation starter and should be ready by the All-Star break.

In a perfect world Santana would christen the new ballpark with an Opening Day start in 2010 and wear a Twins cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, but for whatever reason his remaining in Minnesota never seemed to be a legitimate option once the trade rumors began swirling. Swapping him for packages led by Hughes or Ellsbury would have put the Twins in a better position for both short- and long-term success, so if either of those deals were passed on then Smith made a major mistake.

With that said, getting Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber from the Mets likely beats keeping Santana for one more season and taking a pair of draft picks when he departs as a free agent. A toolsy center fielder who hasn't shown much offensively, a very raw 18-year-old pitcher, and a pair of MLB-ready middle-of-the-rotation starters is no one's idea of a great haul for Santana, but it's not a horrible one and Smith may have backed himself into a corner by not jumping on better offers immediately.

The end result of a bad situation handled poorly is a mediocre package of players that has no one excited, but even acquiring Hughes or Ellsbury wouldn't have made losing Santana easy to live with. Trading away one of the best players in franchise history while he's still at the top of his game is a horrible thing and doing so without getting the best possible return for him is extremely disappointing, but the Santana trade still has a chance to work out in the Twins' favor. It just could have been better.

http://mvn.com/mlb-yankees/2008/01/29/santana-to-the-mets/


I just posted on something else, but pulled it when this news came up. it seems that the Twins were not just posturing when they said they were taking the final offers for Johan. The NY Post is reporting that the Mets have agreed to trade four prospects for Johan Santana, and have a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract extension. The Mets give up Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. Buster Olney was reporting as recently as this morning that the Yankees seemed to no longer be involved. I will briefly discuss my first impression on what this means for all the teams involved in the saga.

Mets: The clear winners in this deal, in my opinion. They held their ground and did not relinquish Fernando Martinez, their number one prospect who seems to have legitimate star potential. Gomez is a nice prospect, but many scouts have doubts about him developing any power. His ceiling may be that of Juan Pierre. Humber is a falling star, with his prospect status diminishing by the day. Guerra and Mulvey, particularly Guerra, are the wildcards in this deal, pitchers of high repute who will take a few years to develop, if ever. Mulvey is closer to the majors with more limited potential, while Guerra is the highest ceiling prospect in the deal. Most importantly, the Mets had one glaring need and filled it. They have now reestablished themselves as the legitimate superpower in the weak National League. A very bold move by a bold GM.

Twins: Bill Smith got fleeced, in my opinion. I think he seriously overplayed his hand, and was left with a package lesser than the offers he had previously received. It is unfortunate that Carl Pohlad cannot open his purse strings. However, Smith knew that coming in and failed to get the best possible deal. I would have taken a deal with Hughes, Melky, Marquez, and Hilligoss, or a deal with Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson, over the package he got. The rookie GM got taken in front of the entire baseball world, and I cannot imagine Twins fans will be happy. Of course, Mulvey and Guerra can make me wrong, but Smith may no longer be around to see that, and I find it to be unlikely regardless.

Yankees and Red Sox: I think both teams got what they wanted here- Johan in the NL. The Yankees stick with Brian Cashman’s plan, which is gratifying to see, and Boston does not sell the farm for what was ultimately a luxury. All in all, I imagine that neither team is mourning the loss of Santana this afternoon.

Johan Santana: He goes to a weaker division, to a team filled with Latinos, with an owner that will pay him. What is not to like?

So, what do you think? Relieved? Disappointed? Chime in.

Update: There is one point I neglected to make earlier in regard to the Yankees part in this saga. I fully expect a Steinbrenneresque ultimatum to come down over the next few days, basically stating that “We took Brian’s advice, now he has to deliver.” Cashman’s job may very well depend on the outcome of this trade, assuming he wants to return in the first place. Imagine the following scenario. It is late June, and Hughes is headed for the D.L. with a 4.86 ERA, Kennedy has proven to have bottom of the rotation potential, and Melky is hitting .262 without any increase in power. Meanwhile, the Mets are coasting along, led by ace Johan Santana, who is 11-2 with a 2.34 ERA. All of the papers will suddenly revisit the Santana-Yankees situation, wondering why Brian was so reluctant to give up unproven talent for a known star. Do you think Hank will keep his mouth shut and quietly stick to the plan? I highly doubt it. I am glad that the Yankees did not trade their youth, and look forward to the 2008 season with the Big Three on the mound. I just hope the whole situation does not cost us Brian Cashman.

Update: Looking at BA and John Sickels’ prospect lists, the Mets gave up their 2,3,4, and 7th rated prospects. For the Yankees, this would have meant Tabata, Kennedy, Horne, and Betances. I for one have doubts that the Twins were going take a similar offer from an A.L. team. To keep him in the same league, the Twins probably wanted a talent such as Hughes or Ellsbury. When that proved unlikely, they grabbed the best remaining package. I doubt Cash could have made the trade with the offer I listed above. Do you think that it is a better package than the one Smith took? Should Cashman have been more proactive if that type of offer was a possibility?

http://blog.nj.com/yankees/2008/01/jokes_on_us_santana_traded_for.html

We haven't stopped laughing, because the one day we finally write "there's no chance he's being traded today, of all days," USA Today is reporting that the Mets have a deal in place to acquire Johan Santana.

Ken Rosenthal says the deal is getting close, but USA Today -- not to mention our favorite "enemy" blog -- is reporting that it's a done deal.

Well, like we said today, we've cared for our requisite four seconds, and now we can celebrate: 1) keeping Joba; 2) keeping Hughes; 3) keeping IPK; and 4) not having to sign a pitcher who could be on his AL decline to a seven-year deal.

Frankly, it makes far more sense for Johan to go to the NL now, where he'll likely dominate the league with sub-3.00 ERAs for a few seasons. He'll pitch to far worse 8th and 9th hitters in every lineup, and players and teams who've never seen tape of the guy now have to play catch up.

Huge advantage to the Mets, a great deal for them in giving up just a couple of prospects, and we're happy to not have to worry about another enormous contract, and another season of what-ifs. Now, we can focus on the kids, live and die with them for a season, and grow with a new generation of youngsters.

Frankly, we couldn't be happier.

(Even if we were completely, horribly, egregiously wrong with our prediction today.)

UPDATE: One other note, as we blogger brothers just chatted by phone, wondering whether the Twins have egg on their face(s) for refusing a Yankee deal that included Phil Hughes, and now settling for far less. We came to the conclusion -- which was thrown around all over this here Internets -- that Brian Cashman never really put Hughes on the table. The Yankees were just hangin' around, with some low-level management guy leaking Hughes's name to the media to potentially drive up the price for the Red Sox, and some low-level management guy in the Boston organization floating Buchholz and Lester's names just to drive up the price for the Yankees. In reality, both teams probably spoke with the Twins, but never really wanted to give up what the Twins wanted. The Twins, recognizing that the Yanks and Sox were never, ever going to include the names the media leaked, then got desperate to get the most value for Johan, and chose the Mets's weak-ish offer...